Drying of the Aral Sea reshapes the anthropogenic carbon inventory of Central Asia

R Rafael Marcé (Centre for Advanced Studies, Spanish National Research Council (CEAB-CSIC), Blanes, Spain.) D Daniel Diaz de-Quijano (Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Girona, Spain.) S Sofía Rodríguez-Gómez (Universidad de Málaga; Departamento de Ecología, Grupo de Ecología Marina y Limnología, Málaga, Spain.) E Enrique Moreno-Ostos (Universidad de Málaga; Departamento de Ecología, Grupo de Ecología Marina y Limnología, Málaga, Spain.) M Makhambet Mukhtar (NGO Aral Tenizi, Aralsk, Kazakhstan.) B Björn Wissel (Université Claude Bernard - Lyon 1, UMR 5023 LEHNA,Villeurbanne, France.) Z Zoraida Quiñones-Rivera (Université Claude Bernard - Lyon 1, UMR 5023 LEHNA,Villeurbanne, France.) C Carolina Olid (UB-Geomodels Research Institute, Departament de Dinàmica de la Terra i l’Oceà, Facultat de Ciències de la Terra, Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Barcelona, Spain.) S Santiago Giralt (Geosciences Barcelona (GEO3BCN), CSIC, Barcelona, Spain.) J Joan Pere Casas-Ruiz (Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (IMEDEA-UIB-CSIC), Esporles, Spain.) G Georgiy Kirillin (Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Berlin, Germany.) D Daniel Mercado-Bettín (Centre for Advanced Studies, Spanish National Research Council (CEAB-CSIC), Blanes, Spain.) V Valentí Rodellas (Physics Department, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Spain.) J Jordi Ibáñez-Insa (Geosciences Barcelona (GEO3BCN), CSIC, Barcelona, Spain.) N Núria Catalán (Centre for Advanced Studies, Spanish National Research Council (CEAB-CSIC), Blanes, Spain.)

Abstract

Lakes store large quantities of carbon in their sediments, contributing to climate regulation. Yet the fate of this carbon after lake desiccation remains unclear. Using a space-for-time substitution approach, combining sediment cores, carbon dioxide flux measurements, and remote sensing, we quantified organic carbon losses from the world’s largest desiccated lake, the Aral Sea. Since 1960, exposed lake bed sediments have released 204 ± 53 teragrams of carbon (Tg C), with vegetation growth offsetting less than 1%. Incorporating these emissions alters the regional carbon budget, transforming the Aral Sea basin from a presumed land-use-change carbon sink into a net source. Reflooding the sea could prevent an additional 165 ± 13 Tg C release, reframing restoration not only as an ecological and humanitarian imperative but also as a climate mitigation opportunity.

Article Details

Journal Science
Volume / Issue Vol. 393, Issue 6808
Published July 16, 2026
Pages 300-305
ISSN 0036-8075
Publisher American Association for the Advancement of Science

Journal Info

Science

American Association for the Advancement of Science

ISSN: 0036-8075 Social Sciences

Authors (15)

R

Rafael Marcé

Centre for Advanced Studies, Spanish National Research Council (CEAB-CSIC), Blanes, Spain.

D

Daniel Diaz de-Quijano

Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Girona, Spain.

S

Sofía Rodríguez-Gómez

Universidad de Málaga; Departamento de Ecología, Grupo de Ecología Marina y Limnología, Málaga, Spain.

E

Enrique Moreno-Ostos

Universidad de Málaga; Departamento de Ecología, Grupo de Ecología Marina y Limnología, Málaga, Spain.

M

Makhambet Mukhtar

NGO Aral Tenizi, Aralsk, Kazakhstan.

B

Björn Wissel

Université Claude Bernard - Lyon 1, UMR 5023 LEHNA,Villeurbanne, France.

Z

Zoraida Quiñones-Rivera

Université Claude Bernard - Lyon 1, UMR 5023 LEHNA,Villeurbanne, France.

C

Carolina Olid

UB-Geomodels Research Institute, Departament de Dinàmica de la Terra i l’Oceà, Facultat de Ciències de la Terra, Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Barcelona, Spain.

S

Santiago Giralt

Geosciences Barcelona (GEO3BCN), CSIC, Barcelona, Spain.

J

Joan Pere Casas-Ruiz

Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (IMEDEA-UIB-CSIC), Esporles, Spain.

G

Georgiy Kirillin

Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Berlin, Germany.

D

Daniel Mercado-Bettín

Centre for Advanced Studies, Spanish National Research Council (CEAB-CSIC), Blanes, Spain.

V

Valentí Rodellas

Physics Department, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Spain.

J

Jordi Ibáñez-Insa

Geosciences Barcelona (GEO3BCN), CSIC, Barcelona, Spain.

N

Núria Catalán

Centre for Advanced Studies, Spanish National Research Council (CEAB-CSIC), Blanes, Spain.