Compound climate events threaten tropical semi-enclosed marine ecosystems

Éva E. Plagányi (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.) L Laura K. Blamey (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.) R Rob Kenyon (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.) S Stephanie Brodie (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.) R Roy Aijun Deng (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.) D Denham Parker (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.) R Richard D. Pillans (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.) N Nicole E. Murphy (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.) M Margaret Miller (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.) A Amelia A. Desbiens (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.) S Sean Pascoe (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.) A André E. Punt (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.)

Abstract

Anthropogenic ocean warming affects ecosystem functioning but is not necessarily the primary climate driver regulating tropical seas. Tropical semi-enclosed marine ecosystems are poorly understood, geographically distinct, and influenced by compounding impacts from global warming, cyclones, monsoons, freshwater influx, and massive sea-level and circulation variability. We unify climate risk understanding of these large-scale integrated ocean-atmosphere-biological systems, showing that compound climate events expose resident species to larger, prolonged fluctuations, causing reconfigured spatial patterns and lack of sustained hydrological connectivity. We attribute changes in species’ abundance in these systems to complex and cumulative combinations of extreme temperatures, exposure, turbidity, and hydrologic connections. We describe evidence of such climate-induced physical and biological regime shifts in tropical marine ecosystems in northern Australia and identify implications for other systems.

Article Details

Journal Science
Volume / Issue Vol. 392, Issue 6803
Published June 11, 2026
Pages 1154-1160
ISSN 0036-8075
Publisher American Association for the Advancement of Science

Journal Info

Science

American Association for the Advancement of Science

ISSN: 0036-8075 Social Sciences

Authors (12)

Éva E. Plagányi

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.

L

Laura K. Blamey

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.

R

Rob Kenyon

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.

S

Stephanie Brodie

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.

R

Roy Aijun Deng

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.

D

Denham Parker

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.

R

Richard D. Pillans

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.

N

Nicole E. Murphy

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.

M

Margaret Miller

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.

A

Amelia A. Desbiens

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.

S

Sean Pascoe

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.

A

André E. Punt

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.