Climate-driven reduction in biomass production of the Eurasian steppe coincides with nomadic migration during the first millennium CE

F Feng Chen X Xiaoen Zhao (Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security/Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Transboundary Eco-Security of Southwest China, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University) W Weipeng Yue (Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security/Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Transboundary Eco-Security of Southwest China, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University) S Shijie Wang (Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security/Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Transboundary Eco-Security of Southwest China, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University) Y Yong Zhang Y Youping Chen (State Key Laboratory of Vegetation Structure, Functions and Construction, Yunnan University) M Mao Hu (Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security/Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Transboundary Eco-Security of Southwest China, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University) J Jan Esper U Ulf Büntgen F Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist (Department of History, Stockholm University) A Amy E. Hessl (Department of Geology and Geography, West Virginia University) M Max C. A. Torbenson (Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University) Y Yujiang Yuan (Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring, Physical and Chemical Research, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration) M Martín A. Hadad (Laboratorio de Dendrocronología de Zonas Áridas-Instituto y Museo de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Nacional de San Juan, Centro de Investigaciones de la Geósfera y Biósfera, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas - Universidad Nacional de San Juan) F Fidel A. Roig (Laboratorio de Dendrocronología e Historia Ambiental, Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas-Universidad Nacional de Cuyo) H Honghua Cao (Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security/Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Transboundary Eco-Security of Southwest China, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University) H Heli Zhang (Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring, Physical and Chemical Research, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration) Y Yaqun Liang (School of History and Administration, Yunnan Normal University) F Fahu Chen (Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), Lanzhou University)

Abstract

Although it is generally accepted today that climate and other environmental factors affected past human societies at different spatiotemporal scales, direct linkages are difficult to determine, and correlation should not be confused with causation. Here, we use a tree-ring width network of multimillennial chronologies from inner Eurasia to reconstruct annual changes in Net Primary Productivity (NPP) back to 200 BCE. Our findings reveal that episodes of reduced NPP around the 70s–100s, 360s–380s, and 470s–560s CE likely contributed to the westward and southward migration of nomadic people from their homelands in northwestern China and Mongolia. Although prolonged multidecadal periods of climate-induced low NPP served as tipping points for agricultural and pastoral subsistence systems, the inherent mobility of nomadic communities not only enabled them to adapt to adverse environmental conditions but also facilitated a widespread dispersal of ethnic groups.

Article Details

Volume / Issue Vol. 123, Issue 8
Published February 24, 2026
ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher National Academy of Sciences

Authors (19)

F

Feng Chen

X

Xiaoen Zhao

Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security/Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Transboundary Eco-Security of Southwest China, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University

W

Weipeng Yue

Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security/Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Transboundary Eco-Security of Southwest China, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University

S

Shijie Wang

Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security/Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Transboundary Eco-Security of Southwest China, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University

Y

Yong Zhang

Y

Youping Chen

State Key Laboratory of Vegetation Structure, Functions and Construction, Yunnan University

M

Mao Hu

Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security/Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Transboundary Eco-Security of Southwest China, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University

J

Jan Esper

U

Ulf Büntgen

F

Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist

Department of History, Stockholm University

A

Amy E. Hessl

Department of Geology and Geography, West Virginia University

M

Max C. A. Torbenson

Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University

Y

Yujiang Yuan

Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring, Physical and Chemical Research, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration

M

Martín A. Hadad

Laboratorio de Dendrocronología de Zonas Áridas-Instituto y Museo de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Nacional de San Juan, Centro de Investigaciones de la Geósfera y Biósfera, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas - Universidad Nacional de San Juan

F

Fidel A. Roig

Laboratorio de Dendrocronología e Historia Ambiental, Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas-Universidad Nacional de Cuyo

H

Honghua Cao

Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security/Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Transboundary Eco-Security of Southwest China, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University

H

Heli Zhang

Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring, Physical and Chemical Research, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration

Y

Yaqun Liang

School of History and Administration, Yunnan Normal University

F

Fahu Chen

Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), Lanzhou University