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Using major histocompatibility complex (MHC) II expression to predict antitumor response to CD4 + lymphocyte depletion

A comprehensive analysis of the impacts of Image Resolution and Scanning Times on the quality of MPI-reconstructed images

Alleviating biotic stress of powdery mildew in mango cv. Keitt by Sulfur nanoparticles and assessing their effect on productivity and disease severity

Abstract The control of powdery mildew disease is one of the main objectives in Mango production. Mango production with superior quality is becoming increasingly challenging due to climate change, which may negatively affect all stages of their development. Recently, Nanotechnology is a promising and rapidly evolving field that could be a very useful tool to raise the efficiency of fungicides. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of sulfur nanoparticles (SNPs) and reducing the incidence of powdery mildew, improving growth performance and productivity of mango cv. Keitt ( Mangifera indica L.). Four concentrations of SNPs (0, 100, 300, and 500 ppm) were compared to sulfur microform (bulk) at a concentration of 500 ppm. At a private farm on Cairo Alex Desert Road K78, Egypt, foliar spray treatments were administered to an eight-year-old mango cv. Keitt grafted on Sukari rootstock. The experiment was conducted using a randomized complete block design, with each tree receiving a five-liter spray of the solution. The results suggested that the use of 500 ppm concentration of SNPs led to reducing powdery mildew disease incidence by 8.8% but it negatively affected productivity, as it decreased by 27% compared to the control treatment. Whereas 100 ppm concentration of SNPs led to increasing the productivity by 342% compared to the control treatment, reducing powdery mildew disease incidence in mango was recorded at 14.6%. Furthermore, the TSS and vitamin C increased significantly by 16 Brix and 46.3 mg, respectively, in association with decreasing titratable acidity in fruits. In aggregate, our data demonstrated that 100 ppm and 300 ppm of sulfur nanoparticles was more efficient than 500 ppm of sulfur bulk in improving POD and PPO enzyme activity. It is recommended to add SNPs of 100 ppm as foliar spraying three times at 15-day intervals for alleviating the harmful impact of disease on mango trees by improving the enzyme activity, thereby yield, and fruit quality of mango trees exposed to powdery mildew disease.

Study on the pressure relief energy dissipation law of variable-diameter boreholes in roadway surrounding rock

Analysis and forecast of the coupled development level of socioeconomy ecological environment and tourism in China’s Yellow River Basin

Analyses of an age structure HIV/AIDS compartmental model with optimal control theory

Comparison of approaches for assessing detection and quantitation limits in bioanalytical methods using HPLC for sotalol in plasma

miR-455-3p has superior diagnostic potential to PSA in peripheral blood for prostate cancer

Background Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is commonly used as a biomarker to diagnose and predict the course of prostate cancer (PCa). However, PSA detection is susceptible to changes in the physiologic environment, which may lead to some misdiagnosis. Thus, it is crucial to find a novel diagnostic marker. Methods We accessed microRNA (miRNA) expression datasets (GSE206793 and GSE112264) from the GEO database, analyzing peripheral blood samples from PCa patients. Differentially expressed miRNAs (DEmiRNAs) were identified using GEO2R. A specific miRNA, miR-455-3p, was pinpointed through rigorous analysis of clinical correlations and ROC curves. Peripheral blood samples from healthy individuals and PCa patients were subjected to qRT-PCR validation, aligning results with the GSE206793 dataset. The miRWalk database was utilized to predict downstream genes, while STRING facilitated the construction of a protein-protein interaction (PPI) network. KEGG pathway analysis enriched our understanding of potential molecular pathways. Results We found that miR-455-3p was highly expressed in the peripheral blood of PCa patients with Gleason score (GS) ≥ 8, while independent of T stage, age and PSA. ROC analysis revealed a favorable diagnostic efficacy of miR-455-3p and AUC for the two datasets was respectively 0.943 and 0.847. The qRT-PCR assay also revealed consistent results. Interestingly, the PSA levels of P1 (GS = 5 + 4) and P6 (GS = 3 + 3) were respectively 3.38 and 4.45 ng/ml, while miR-455-3p was highly expressed in both, suggesting its low misdiagnosis. The speculation was validated in GSE206793 dataset. Finally, 9 potential targets of miR-455-3p were predicted. PPI network revealed PPP2R2A, ITGB1 and CDKN1A as key nodes. KEGG pathway analysis revealed that they were enriched in various cancers, biological processes and molecular signals. Conclusion Our study identifies miR-455-3p as a promising diagnostic marker for PCa, outperforming PSA in terms of specificity and sensitivity. The robustness of miR-455-3p, coupled with its potential downstream targets and associated pathways, highlights its clinical significance for improved PCa diagnosis and management.

Notch2/3-DLL4 interaction in urothelial cancer cell lines supports a tumorigenic role of Notch signaling pathways in bladder carcinoma

Introduction The Notch pathway plays an important role in many aspects of cancer biology and acts in a dichotomous way in bladder cancer. The mechanisms behind this behavior are still elusive. Here, we analyzed DLL4 and Notch receptor expression, interaction and downstream signaling in human bladder cancer cells. Materials and methods The expression levels of Notch pathway components (Notch1-4, DLL4, HES1, HEY1) were assessed in papillary (G1: RT-4) and non-papillary bladder cancer cell lines (G2-G4: RT-112, 647-V, T-24, KU-19-19, CAL-29) by qRT-PCR and immunofluorescence. Expression data were validated by analyzing data from open-source databases (CCLE; TCGA). The endogeneous interactions of Notch2/Notch3 receptors and the ligand DLL4 were studied by in situ proximity ligation assay. Activation of canonical Notch signaling was evaluated by stimulation with recombinant DLL4 protein. Results All Notch targets were expressed, with Notch2 and Notch3 showing the highest expression levels. Endogeneous interactions between Notch2/3 and DLL4 were detected in all BCa cell lines. Amounts of Notch2/3-DLL4 complexes were high in RT-112 and CAL-29, while RT-4/647-V showed moderate and T-24, KU-19-19 low abundance. Proportion of (peri-) nuclear interaction complexes correlated negatively with Notch downstream targets. DLL4 stimulation resulted in canonical Notch pathway activation and increased tumor cell viability and proliferation in RT-4, 647-V, T-24 and KU-19-19 cells. Discussion The Notch signaling pathway can discriminate between different receptors and may play an essential role in the progression of bladder carcinoma. We demonstrated for the first time direct interactions between DLL4 and Notch2/3 associated to activation of canonical downstream Notch signaling and increased tumor cell behavior in human bladder cancer cells. Our data support the view that the Notch2/3-DLL4 axis plays an oncogenic role in bladder cancer. Further analyses of Notch signaling in bladder cancer can promote the development of tailored anti-DLL4/Notch bladder cancer therapies in the future.

Nutrition educational interventions for athletes related to low energy availability: A systematic review

Low energy availability (LEA) is a prevalent concern among athletes, often attributed to intentional or unintentional under-fueling behaviors. Nutritional and energy availability educational interventions are poised for successful LEA prevention, with a robust body of literature examining intervention effectiveness. Thus, this systematic review aimed to synthesize the available evidence on nutritional education interventions to address gaps in nutritional knowledge and combat LEA among athletes. Medical databases (MEDLINE, Web of Science) were systematically searched on July 11, 2023, and an updated search was conducted on July 26, 2024. Studies conducted among adult athletes who underwent nutritional education interventions with assessed effects on dietary knowledge, behaviors, and/or LEA outcomes were included. Study quality was assessed using the Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro) scale by two blinded assessors. Intervention methodology and primary outcomes related to nutritional interventions were extracted by a single assessor. Twelve articles were included (mean PEDro score: 5). Interventions ranged from 1 to 20 sessions, and 10- to 120-minute durations. Most studies employed in-person educational sessions on fueling and macro- and micro-nutrient intake for athletic performance. Half of included studies included LEA education. Intervention approaches were largely heterogeneous, although most programs had favorable outcomes for nutrition knowledge and fueling behaviors. Nutrition interventions appear to be beneficial for athletes in the context of LEA, though current approaches are largely heterogenous. Future research should seek to develop a translational nutritional education plan for broad application in athletes designed to increase nutritional knowledge and combat LEA.

Measuring progress in availability and readiness of Basic emergency obstetric and newborn care (BEmONC) services in Bangladesh, 2014–2017

Increasing the availability and readiness of basic emergency obstetric and newborn care (BEmONC) services is essential for improving maternal and neonatal health. However, little is known about any progress made in the availability and readiness of BEmONC services in Bangladesh. Using nationally representative data from the Bangladesh Health Facility Survey conducted between 2014 and 2017, we measured changes in the availability and readiness of BEmONC services in health facilities in Bangladesh, calculating the BEmONC service availability and readiness scores according to the World Health Organization Service Availability and Readiness Assessment guideline. The percentage of health facilities performing all seven basic signal functions declined slightly from 13% in 2014 to 11% in 2017. The decline was largely noticed in Maternal and Child Welfare Centers, Upazila Health Complexes, and Union Subcenter/Rural Dispensaries, as well as in all divisions except Rangpur. No remarkable changes in overall readiness of health facilities across location, division and facility type were observed between 2014 and 2017. However, significant reductions in availability and readiness were noticed when item-specific assessment was made. Type of health facility was significantly associated with both availability and readiness scores in adjusted regression models. Appropriate strategies and efforts could improve the availability and readiness of BEmONC services in health facilities in Bangladesh.

Cost profiles of cancer patients at the end of life: Estimates from the EPICOST-study

Objectives The study aims to analyze care and cost patterns in the Veneto region for cancer patients in the final phase of their disease. Methods The study cohort includes adult patients alive on 1.1.2018, which have been diagnosed with cancer at the age 15+ in a 28-years period, spanning from 1990 to 2017, and died within 12 months from prevalence date. The end-of-life (EOL) prevalent cases included in the study cohort are identified by the Veneto Tumor Registry. Primary tumors considered in the analysis are colon, rectum, skin melanoma, female breast, thyroid. Patient monthly average EOL costs, patient annual average EOL costs and total regional costs have been estimated separately for each cancer site/sex/age group/health care service database. Results The estimated EOL total cost, for the five analyzed cancer types in the Veneto Region, is approximately 53 million euros. Costs associated with cancer treatment tend to increase in the final phase of the disease. In general, Hospital Admission is the main driver cost in all types of cancer considered, with the only exception in melanoma, where Hospital Drugs features the highest contribution. Moreover, costs differ significantly depending on the type of cancer, gender, and age, revealing highest average costs associated with younger patients. Conclusions This study provides a comprehensive analysis of healthcare budget distribution in the last year of life, enabling healthcare planners to predict cancer burden in the future. This model can be applied to other Italian regions and countries with different healthcare systems.

No detectable effect of urbanization on genetic drift or gene flow in specialist herbivorous insects of milkweed

Urbanization is hypothesized to isolate populations and restrict dispersal, leading to reduced genetic diversity and increased genetic differentiation. We tested this hypothesis in specialist herbivorous insects of milkweed, positing that higher dispersal ability would mitigate the negative effects of urbanization on genetic drift and gene flow, and that these effects would vary with city size. In this study, we collected 383 milkweed insects from urban and rural sites in Toronto, Canada, and five surrounding cities. Using ddRADseq, we generated 145,000 SPNs for monarchs, 10,000 SNPs for beetles, 6,000 SNPs for weevils to quantify genetic diversity, demographic history and population genetic structure. Contrary to our hypotheses, our results indicated no effect of urbanization or dispersal ability on diversity or genetic differentiation. Genetic diversity, measured as π, varied between 0.0013 and 0.0044 across species, with no urban vs. rural component, but with monarchs having >2 X higher diversity compared to beetles and weevils. Similarly, genetic differentiation was generally low, FST varying between 0.01 and 0.28, but there are no consistent trends among urban vs. rural samples for any of the three species. However, demographic analyses revealed a consistent decline in effective population size for all three sampled species, beginning around the last glacial maximum and intensifying over the past 1,000 years. Our findings suggest that both urbanization and dispersal ability have not been a major factor in reducing gene flow or increasing genetic drift among milkweed’s herbivorous insect populations. Instead, historical events such as climatic change since the last glacial maximum, and large-scale anthropogenic disturbance in general, have had a more pronounced impact on demography. These results highlight the importance of considering the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic long-term historical processes when studying population genetics in the context of urbanization.

Interval price prediction of livestock product based on fuzzy mathematics and improved LSTM

Livestock product prices serve as a barometer and bellwether for the agricultural market. However, traditional point prediction techniques focus mainly on tracking or fitting, resulting in limited information and challenges in evaluating the uncertainty of future prices. A comprehensive livestock price prediction model with joint point and interval prediction capabilities is proposed, with fuzzy mathematics and long short-term memory. Three main steps are taken: (1) data composition and reconstruction, to extract a set of relatively stationary subsequence components by complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) from original signal, and divide these components into three groups according to fuzzy entropy (FE) value. (2) characteristics categorization, determining the lower bound, mean, and upper bound of the rebuilt data via fuzzy information granulation (FIG) to better characterize the price fluctuation range. (3) price prediction, including point and interval predictions with attention mechanism long short-term memory (AM-LSTM). An empirical study was conducted on the weekly price data of pork, beef, and mutton in China from 2009 to 2023, incorporating discussions on different embedding dimensions, prediction step, fuzzy granulation window sizes, decomposition techniques, and prediction algorithms. The results indicate that the proposed interval prediction model can not only achieve high accuracy in point prediction, but also better capture price change intervals.

Bioinformatics analysis of genes associated with disulfidptosis in spinal cord injury

Research findings indicate that programmed cell death (PCD) plays a pivotal role in the pathophysiology of spinal cord injury (SCI), and a recently discovered form of cell death, disulfidptosis, has emerged as a novel phenomenon. However, the characterization of disulfidptosis-related genes in SCI remains insufficiently explored. We retrieved SCI-related data from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database and identified three key genes associated with disulfidptosis in human SCI (CAPZB, SLC3A2, and TLN1), whose mediated signaling pathways are closely intertwined with SCI. Subsequent functional enrichment analysis suggested that these genes may regulate multiple pathways and exert corresponding roles in SCI pathology. Moreover, we predicted potential targeted drugs for the key genes along with their transcription factors and constructed an intricate regulatory network. CIBERSORT analysis revealed that CAPZB, SLC3A2, and TLN1 might be implicated in modulating changes within the immune microenvironment of individuals with SCI. Our study provides compelling evidence confirming the significant involvement of disulfidptosis following SCI while offering valuable insights into its underlying pathological mechanisms.

Maternity care providers’ experiences of work-related serious events (MATES): An International survey

Internationally, many women experience physiological childbirth with positive experiences and good health outcomes for them and their baby. For some, due to health complications and context of childbirth they may experience or be perceived as having had a traumatic birth. Ultimately, whether an individual experiences an event as traumatic or not, is a personal experience. Caring for women who experience their birth as traumatic can be challenging. The risk of exposure to a traumatic birth event(s) as part of maternity care providers (MCPs) work, ranges from 67% to 90%. Thereby to support MCPs to provide quality maternal and newborn care, it is important to explore the impact of work-related events. An anonymised online survey relating to MATernity serious EventS (MATES) was developed utilising validated instruments and hosted on QualtricsXM. Following ethical approval, the questionnaire was disseminated internationally across 33 countries between 1st July and 31st December 2022 via social media and the COST Action DEVOTION (CA18211 www.ca18211.eu) network. In total, 579 MCPs responded with a wide age range and years of experience. Descriptive and inferential statistical analyses were performed, including univariate and multivariate linear regression. Data analyses and management were undertaken using SPSS v.20 and two-sided significance tests were applied (α 0.05). The findings suggest that MCPs are exposed to a large variation of serious events and continue to be intensely affected, up to the present day. Events ranged from stillbirth, neonatal death, maternal death, severe or life-threatening maternal or infant incidents and violence and aggression from women or family member. Institutional support for staff is limited, and when available, seldom used. Family and friends were relied on for support, but this does not appear to be associated with MCPs experiencing less secondary traumatic stress. Subsequently MCPs were absence from work through sickness (22%), changed their professional allocation (19%) and seriously considered leaving (42%). Moreover, many reported low to moderate compassion satisfaction and burnout (65–80%). With international scarcity of MCPs, the impact of these events seem to contribute to this shortage. Effective support for MCPs is required if staff are to be recruited and retained.

Long-term consumption of hydrogen-rich water provides hepatoprotection by improving mitochondrial biology and quality control in chronically stressed mice

Background Chronic stress has emerged as a prevalent facet of contemporary existence, significantly jeopardizing overall bodily health. The liver, a pivotal organ responsible for metabolic equilibrium, is particularly vulnerable to its adverse effects. This study delves into the hepatoprotective properties of extended consumption of HRW in mice subjected to chronic stress. Methods Mice subjected to chronic stress via CUMS and HRW administration for seven months underwent liver pathological examination. Key liver function indicators (AST, ALT), oxidative stress markers (SOD, CAT, GSH), and markers related to lipid peroxidation and ferroptosis (MDA, Fe) were measured using standard kits. ELISA determined corticosterone and 4-HNE levels. Immunofluorescence evaluated ROS, Nrf2, and apoptosis in liver tissues. Western blotting analyzed markers for ferroptosis (GPX4, SLC7A11, HO-1, Nrf2), apoptosis (Bax, Bcl-2, Cytc, Caspase-3, Caspase-8), mitochondrial biogenesis (Nrf1, PGC-1α, Tfam), and quality control (Drp1, Fis1, Mfn1, Mfn2, OPA1, PINK1, Parkin, LC3 I/II). Results The findings indicate a noteworthy improvement in liver health among mice exposed to HRW, as evidenced by histological analysis. Furthermore, the consumption of HRW exhibited hepatoprotection, as evidenced by the normalization of AST and ALT levels. Mechanistically, our results indicate that HRW elevates the levels of SOD, CAT, and GSH, while effectively clearing ROS within mitochondria. It was observed led to a regulation in the expression of mitochondrial quality control proteins, consequently improving mitochondrial biogenesis (Nrf1, PGC-1α, Tfam), and increasing ATP production. Furthermore, HRW decreased Cytc, Bax, Caspase-3, and Caspase-8 levels, and increasing the expression of Bcl-2. Additionally, HRW reduced MDA and 4-HNE levels, alleviating ferroptosis through the Nrf2/HO-1 pathway, and upregulating the expression of GPX4 and SLC7A11. By mitigating hepatocyte death through the aforementioned mechanisms, HRW fulfills its crucial role in safeguarding liver health. Conclusions This study reveals that long-term hydrogen-rich water (HRW) consumption provides significant hepatoprotection in mice under chronic stress. HRW normalizes liver enzyme levels, enhances antioxidant capacity, and reduces lipid peroxidation and ferroptosis. It improves mitochondrial biogenesis, function, and ATP production, and attenuates apoptosis by modulating related proteins. Behavioral tests show HRW alleviates stress-induced anxiety and enhances exploratory behavior. These findings suggest HRW is a promising non-invasive intervention for preventing and treating stress-related liver disorders by targeting oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction.

Risk factors associated with the recurrence of diabetic foot ulcers: A meta-analysis

Aims Diabetic foot ulcers have caused significant medical, economic and social consequences for patients, families and society. With appropriate treatment, many diabetic foot ulcers can heal, temporarily avoiding possible amputation. Unfortunately, even if foot ulcers subside, recurrence is still common. The recurrence of ulcer has brought another physical and psychological trauma to diabetic foot patients who yearn for a better life. Therefore, it may be more useful to evaluate the factors associated with ulcer recurrence in diabetic foot ulcer patients. Methods The PubMed, Web of Science, Embase and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases were comprehensively searched for prospective or retrospective studies published up to February 1, 2024. All English or Chinese language studies on diabetic foot ulcer patients who experience recurrence were included, and RevMan 5.3 software was used to analyze the data. Results A total of 22 studies meeting the eligibility criteria were ultimately included in this meta-analysis. 1861 of 5252 diabetic foot ulcer patients experienced recurrence during follow-up. The following variables were associated with an increased risk of ulcer recurrence: male (OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.10 ~ 1.44, P = 0.0009), smoking history (OR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.04 ~ 1.35, P = 0.01), living alone (OR = 1.86, 95% CI = 1.21 ~ 2.86, P = 0.004), plantar ulcers (OR = 2.44, 95% CI = 1.41 ~ 4.23, P = 0.001), diabetic retinopathy (OR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.35 ~ 1.88, P < 0.00001), diabetic nephropathy (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.12 ~ 1.68, P = 0.002), diabetic peripheral neuropathy (OR = 1.78, 95% CI = 1.45 ~ 2.19, P < 0.00001), foot deformity (OR = 2.51, 95% CI = 1.85 ~ 3.40 P < 0.00001) and peripheral arterial disease (OR = 3.10, 95% CI = 2.43 ~ 3.95 P < 0.00001). However, hypertension (OR = 1.16, 95% CI = 0.96 ~ 1.40, P = 0.13) and body mass index (MD = 0.20, 95% CI = −0.12 ~ 0.53, P = 0.22) were not associated with diabetic foot ulcer recurrence. Conclusions Our meta-analysis identified the following important risk factors for diabetic foot ulcer recurrence: male sex, smoking history, living alone, plantar ulcer, diabetic retinopathy, diabetic nephropathy, diabetic peripheral neuropathy, foot deformity, and peripheral arterial disease. Understanding these factors and their impact on ulcer recurrence is crucial for multidisciplinary teams to develop management and treatment plans for diabetic foot ulcer patients.

The perspectives of women on sustainable fashion consumption: Comparative study of university teachers and students

In the recent decade, fashion industry has been receiving extensive criticisms for having a significant negative impact on the environment and people. As the counterpoint of rapid pace and cheap prices which trigger overconsumption, sustainable fashion started turning into a new trend and demand for business. As the interest of consumers in sustainability continues to grow, the literature started analysing what drives or hinders them from sustainable consumption. However, acknowledging the gender differences, there is a gap in literature regarding sustainable fashion consumption from the perspective of female consumers. The purpose of this paper is to reveal the sustainable fashion consumption of females, comparing the clusters of university teachers and students. In doing this, a qualitative research was conducted, with 24 semi-structured interviews in total. The findings revealed a huge contradiction. Although females are aware of sustainable fashion elements, at the same time, they, especially students, do not consider sustainability as a primary motivation for their behaviour. As such, the gap between attitude and behaviour was revealed. Although teachers try to find the good ratio between quality and price, for students, the price usually wins when it comes to purchasing clothes. The representatives from both clusters do shopping from fast fashion retailers; however, students do it much more often and intensively in comparison to teachers. The teachers mainly use swapping and redesigning as sustainable fashion consumption practices. In case of students, second-hand shops and Vinted were prevailing. Among the drivers leading to sustainable consumption, awareness, uniqueness and personal style, and item life-cycle extension were mentioned. Regarding the barriers, high price and low income, personal restrictions, and lack of information and knowledge were mainly emphasised. The findings could be considered to initiate changes, which could enable closing the attitude-behaviour gap.

Bayesian spatio-temporal disease mapping of COVID-19 cases in Bangladesh

Background COVID-19 is a highly transmittable respiratory illness induced by SARS-CoV-2, a novel coronavirus. The spatio-temporal analysis considers interactions between space and time is essential for understanding the virus’s transmission pattern and developing efficient mitigation strategies. Objective This study explicitly examines how meteorological, demographic, and vaccination with all doses of risk factors are interrelated with COVID-19’s complex evolution and dynamics in 64 Bangladeshi districts over space and time. Methods The study employed Bayesian spatio-temporal Poisson modeling to determine the most suitable model, including linear trend, analysis of variance (ANOVA), separable models, and Poisson temporal model for spatiotemporal effects. The study employed the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC) for model selection. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach also provided information regarding both prior and posterior realizations. Results The results of our study indicate that the spatio-temporal Poisson ANOVA model outperformed all other models when considering various criteria for model selection and validation. This finding underscores the significant relationship between spatial and temporal variations and the number of cases. Additionally, our analysis reveals that maximum temperature does not appear to have a significant association with infected cases. On the other hand, factors such as humidity (%), population density, urban population, aging index, literacy rate (%), households with internet users (%), and complete vaccination coverage all play vital roles in correlating with the number of affected cases in Bangladesh. Conclusions The research has demonstrated that demographic, meteorological, and vaccination variables possess significant potential to be associated with COVID-19-affected cases in Bangladesh. These data show that there are interconnections between space and time, which shows how important it is to use integrated modeling in pandemic management. An assessment of the risks particular to an area allows government agencies and communities to concentrate their efforts to mitigate those risks.