Years of life lost in patients with a false-negative diagnosis of primary melanoma. A prospective study of the German Central Malignant Melanoma Registry involving 9063 patients over 28 years

C Claus Garbe U Ulrike Keim T Teresa Amaral P Paolo A. Ascierto (From the Sandra and Edward Meyer Cancer Center (J.D.W.) and the Department of Medicine (J.D.W., M.A.P.), Weill Cornell Medicine, and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (M.A.P.) — both in New York; Istituto Oncologico Veneto, IRCCS, Padua (V.C.-S.), European Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, Milan (P.Q.), Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, IRCCS, Meldola (M.G.), University of Siena and the Center for Immuno-Oncology, University Hospital of Siena, Siena (M.M.), and Istituto Nazionale Tumori IRCCS Fondazione Pascale, Naples (P.A.A.) — all in Italy; Maria Sklodowska-Curie National Institute of Oncology, Warsaw, Poland (P.R.); Texas Oncology–Baylor Charles A. Sammons Cancer Center, Dallas (C.L.C.); University Hospital Essen, the German Cancer Consortium, the National Center for Tumor Diseases–West, the Research Alliance Ruhr, Research Center One Health, and University Duisburg-Essen — all in Essen, Germany (D.S.); the College of Medicine, Swansea University, Swansea (J.W.), Brist...) J Jürgen Bauer R Reinhard Dummer A Alexander M. M. Eggermont T Thomas K. Eigentler L Lukas Flatz (University Hospital Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany) S Stephan Forchhammer A Andrea Forschner S Sara Gandini J Jeffrey E. Gershenwald A Axel Hauschild (Department of Dermatology, University Hospital, Kiel, Germany) C Christoph Hoeller J John M. Kirkwood C Céleste Lebbé G Georgina V. Long P Paul Lorigan J Jason J. Luke F Friedegund Meier G Gisela Metzler P Paul Nathan M Michael A. Postow (From the Sandra and Edward Meyer Cancer Center (J.D.W.) and the Department of Medicine (J.D.W., M.A.P.), Weill Cornell Medicine, and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (M.A.P.) — both in New York; Istituto Oncologico Veneto, IRCCS, Padua (V.C.-S.), European Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, Milan (P.Q.), Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, IRCCS, Meldola (M.G.), University of Siena and the Center for Immuno-Oncology, University Hospital of Siena, Siena (M.M.), and Istituto Nazionale Tumori IRCCS Fondazione Pascale, Naples (P.A.A.) — all in Italy; Maria Sklodowska-Curie National Institute of Oncology, Warsaw, Poland (P.R.); Texas Oncology–Baylor Charles A. Sammons Cancer Center, Dallas (C.L.C.); University Hospital Essen, the German Cancer Consortium, the National Center for Tumor Diseases–West, the Research Alliance Ruhr, Research Center One Health, and University Duisburg-Essen — all in Essen, Germany (D.S.); the College of Medicine, Swansea University, Swansea (J.W.), Brist...) C Caroline Robert M Martin Röcken D Dirk Schadendorf B Benjamin Weide D David Whiteman U Ulrike Leiter P Peter Martus

Abstract

Abstract A false-negative diagnosis of cancer can lead to a delay in effective treatment and a poorer prognosis. Here, we use the example of cutaneous melanoma to examine how many years of life are lost after a false-negative diagnosis compared to a primarily correct diagnosis. From 1996 to 2015, 9,063 patients are prospectively registered in the German Central Malignant Melanoma Registry and followed up until December 2023. A false-negative diagnosis is found in 206 (2.3%) patients. The median time to correct diagnosis is 24.0 months. The 10-year recurrence-free survival probabilities are 32.9% for false-negative diagnoses and 76.2% for correct diagnoses (p < 0.001). The 10-year melanoma-specific survival probabilities are 62.1% versus 85.0% (p < 0.001). On average, each person with an initial false-negative diagnosis loses 8.2 years of life compared to people with a correct diagnosis. This high number of years of life lost raises the question of whether similar results also apply to other types of cancer.

Article Details

Volume / Issue Vol. 17, Issue 1
Published July 02, 2026
ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher Nature Portfolio

Journal Info

Nature Communications

Nature Portfolio

ISSN: 2041-1723 Open Access Life Sciences

Authors (31)

C

Claus Garbe

U

Ulrike Keim

T

Teresa Amaral

P

Paolo A. Ascierto

From the Sandra and Edward Meyer Cancer Center (J.D.W.) and the Department of Medicine (J.D.W., M.A.P.), Weill Cornell Medicine, and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (M.A.P.) — both in New York; Istituto Oncologico Veneto, IRCCS, Padua (V.C.-S.), European Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, Milan (P.Q.), Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, IRCCS, Meldola (M.G.), University of Siena and the Center for Immuno-Oncology, University Hospital of Siena, Siena (M.M.), and Istituto Nazionale Tumori IRCCS Fondazione Pascale, Naples (P.A.A.) — all in Italy; Maria Sklodowska-Curie National Institute of Oncology, Warsaw, Poland (P.R.); Texas Oncology–Baylor Charles A. Sammons Cancer Center, Dallas (C.L.C.); University Hospital Essen, the German Cancer Consortium, the National Center for Tumor Diseases–West, the Research Alliance Ruhr, Research Center One Health, and University Duisburg-Essen — all in Essen, Germany (D.S.); the College of Medicine, Swansea University, Swansea (J.W.), Brist...

J

Jürgen Bauer

R

Reinhard Dummer

A

Alexander M. M. Eggermont

T

Thomas K. Eigentler

L

Lukas Flatz

University Hospital Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany

S

Stephan Forchhammer

A

Andrea Forschner

S

Sara Gandini

J

Jeffrey E. Gershenwald

A

Axel Hauschild

Department of Dermatology, University Hospital, Kiel, Germany

C

Christoph Hoeller

J

John M. Kirkwood

C

Céleste Lebbé

G

Georgina V. Long

P

Paul Lorigan

J

Jason J. Luke

F

Friedegund Meier

G

Gisela Metzler

P

Paul Nathan

M

Michael A. Postow

From the Sandra and Edward Meyer Cancer Center (J.D.W.) and the Department of Medicine (J.D.W., M.A.P.), Weill Cornell Medicine, and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (M.A.P.) — both in New York; Istituto Oncologico Veneto, IRCCS, Padua (V.C.-S.), European Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, Milan (P.Q.), Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, IRCCS, Meldola (M.G.), University of Siena and the Center for Immuno-Oncology, University Hospital of Siena, Siena (M.M.), and Istituto Nazionale Tumori IRCCS Fondazione Pascale, Naples (P.A.A.) — all in Italy; Maria Sklodowska-Curie National Institute of Oncology, Warsaw, Poland (P.R.); Texas Oncology–Baylor Charles A. Sammons Cancer Center, Dallas (C.L.C.); University Hospital Essen, the German Cancer Consortium, the National Center for Tumor Diseases–West, the Research Alliance Ruhr, Research Center One Health, and University Duisburg-Essen — all in Essen, Germany (D.S.); the College of Medicine, Swansea University, Swansea (J.W.), Brist...

C

Caroline Robert

M

Martin Röcken

D

Dirk Schadendorf

B

Benjamin Weide

D

David Whiteman

U

Ulrike Leiter

P

Peter Martus