Vulnerability of power distribution networks to local temperature changes induced by global climate change

Abstract

Abstract Global climate change (GCC) triggers a chain effect, converting temperature pattern changes into variations in blackout risk for power distribution grids (DGs). This occurs through GCC’s impacts on electricity supply, demand, and infrastructure, which shift the DG’s safe-operation boundary and power flow. This study presents a model integration framework to assess the associated blackout risk, showing that GCC raises blackout risks during peak hours by 4–6%, depending on Gross Domestic Product growth. Kirchhoff’s laws amplify these effects, creating nonlinear risk trajectories. Analysis of the chain effect suggests adaptation strategies, including reshaping grid topology and pairing temperature-sensitive users with robust buses. Index-based analysis reveals that over 20% of the U.S. requires at least a 10% DG capacity increase before 2050, with six states exceeding 20%. Europe faces a more moderate impact. These findings highlight the need for policymakers to prioritize peak-load management and address nonlinear risks across regions.