Variation in mortality from digestive system cancers in Peru during the period 2001–2020 and its prediction to 2030.

Abstract

e15689 Background: This study identifies changes in mortality from digestive system cancers in Peru during the period 2001–2020 and predict trends up to 2030. Methods: We analyzed records of deaths caused by digestive system cancers (esophagus, stomach, small bowel, colon, rectum, anus, liver and intrahepatic biliary system, gallbladder, extrahepatic biliary system, pancreas) in Peru from the 2001–2020 WHO mortality database. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 population were calculated, along with the difference in ASMR between the extremes of the study period. Predictions for 2030 were performed using the Age-Period-Cohort model with Nordpred package in R. Results: Stomach cancer had the highest mortality at both ends of the study period. During this time, colon cancer surpassed liver cancer as the second leading cause of mortality, with a 69.1% increase in ASMR, representing the highest rise variation between 2001-2020. Conversely, esophageal cancer showed the greatest reduction, with a decrease of 23.6%. In the predictions, we found that between 2021 and 2025, compared to 2020, there would be an increase in ASMR for six of the evaluated cancer types. This increase is projected to affect eight cancer types during the 2026–2030. Conclusions: Mortality from digestive system cancers in Peru has risen significantly from 2001 to 2020, with projections that show continuous increase, especially in stomach, colon, pancreatic, and gallbladder cancers, highlighting the need for improved prevention, early detection, and treatment. Variation and prediction of mortality from digestive system cancers. Ranking Cancer 2001nd (ASMR) 2020nd (ASMR) Difference 2001-2020 Prediction 2021 to 2025 2026 to 2030 2001 2020 nd (%) Var (%) ASMR (95%CI) ASMR (95%CI) 1 1 → Stomach 2214 (27.5) 3901 (21.2) 1687 (76.2%) -6.3 (-23.0%) 20.9 (20.7; 21.1) 22.6 (22.4; 22.9) 2 3 ↓ Liver and intrahepatic biliary system 861 (10.4) 1723 (9.7) 862 (100.1%) -0.7 (-6.7%) 8.9 (8.8; 9.1) 8.9 (8.8; 9.1) 3 2 ↑ Colon 474 (6.0) 1875 (10.1) 1401 (295.6%) 4.1 (69.1%) 10.2 (10.1; 10.4) 12.1 (11.9; 12.2) 4 4 → Pancreas 408 (5.1) 1301 (7.3) 893 (218.9%) 2.2 (41.4%) 7.8 (7.6; 7.9) 8.9 (8.7; 9.0) 5 5 → Gallbladder 198 (2.4) 500 (2.8) 302 (152.5%) 0.4 (17.5%) 3.0 (2.9; 3.1) 3.2 (3.2; 3.3) 6 6 → Extrahepatic biliary system 133 (1.7) 489 (2.7) 356 (267.7%) 1.0 (57.8%) 3.8 (3.7; 3.9) 5.0 (4.9; 5.1) 7 8 ↓ Esophagus 119 (1.5) 207 (1.2) 88 (73.9%) -0.3 (-23.6%) 1.3 (1.2; 1.3) 1.4 (1.3; 1.4) 8 7 ↑ Rectum 83 (1.1) 297 (1.7) 214 (257.8%) 0.6 (57.4%) 1.7 (1.7; 1.8) 2.0 (1.9; 2.1) 9 9 → Small bowel 39 (0.5) 130 (0.7) 91 (233.3%) 0.2 (56.6%) 0.9 (0.8; 0.9) 1.0 (0.9; 1.0) 10 10 → Anus 21 (0.3) 57 (0.3) 36 (171.4%) <0.1 (18.8%) 0.3 (0.3; 0.3) 0.3 (0.3; 0.4) ASMR: Age-standardized mortality rate, 95%CI: 95% confidence interval, nd: Number of deahts, Var: Percentage change ([2020 value-2001 value]/2001 value). ASMR ranking compared to 2001: ↑ Increased, → Maintained, ↓ Decreased.