Unprecedented Amazonian rainforests damage during the 2023–2024 droughts
Abstract
Between 2023 and 2024, Amazonian rainforests experienced two consecutive, record-breaking droughts—each more intense than any previously observed—yet their impacts remain largely unquantified. Using newly developed monthly radar satellite observations (1992 to 2025) that track forest moisture and biomass dynamics, we analyzed the long-term responses of intact Amazonian rainforests to past major droughts—particularly the 2023–2024 event—and projected their post-drought recovery. We found a biome-wide sharp decline in radar signal during 2023–2024, marking the lowest level observed since 1992. Spatially, 26.8% of the forests reached their three-decade minima during this period, primarily in eastern Amazonia. This ratio is more than double that recorded during the 2005 drought, when 11.0% of the forests reached such minima. Moreover, projections based on both historical and future CMIP6 precipitation scenarios consistently indicated that, even 7 y after the 2023–2024 droughts, less than 50% of the affected areas are expected to recover to predrought conditions, and these forests are associated with lower soil cation concentrations, higher soil sand content, and lower canopy height—characteristics that lessen the risk of hydraulic failure. Given that severe droughts have occurred approximately every 7 y over the past three decades, Amazonian rainforests may face another drought before fully recovering from the 2023–2024 event. Our results therefore highlight the growing vulnerability of the Amazonian rainforests to intensifying climate extremes driven by El Niño events and ongoing anthropogenic climate change, providing evidence that these forests are approaching the limits of their preindustrial operating space.
Article Details
Journal Info
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Sciences
Authors (22)
Hao Bai
Institute of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, and State Key Laboratory of Vegetation Structure, Function and Construction, Peking University
Xiangzhuo Liu
UMR 1391 Interaction Sol Plante Atmosphère, Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Hui Yang
Jérôme Chave
Philippe Ciais
Jean-Pierre Wigneron
Sassan Saatchi
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
Jingfeng Xiao
Thuy Le Toan
Centre d’Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphère
Xiaomei Hu
Institute for New Energy Materials and Low Carbon Technologies, School of Materials Science and Engineering
Ziyan Yang
Department of Clinical Laboratory of The First Affiliated Hospital, National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Birth Defect Research and Prevention, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Rare Pediatric Diseases, Institute of Cytology and Genetics of School of Basic Medical Sciences, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China
Lijun Wang
Lei Fan
Yitong Yao
Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology
Xiuzhi Chen
Yanxu Liu
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Hazards Risk Governance, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University
Baolin Xue
Advanced Interdisciplinary Institute of Satellite Applications, Beijing Normal University
Qinghua Guo
Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System, School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University
Zhiyao Tang
Department of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences and State Key Laboratory of Vegetation Structure, Function and Construction, Peking University
Hongyan Liu
CAS Key Laboratory of Green Process and Engineering, State Key Laboratory of Multiphase Complex Systems, Beijing Key Laboratory of Ionic Liquids Clean Process, Institute of Process Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Jingyun Fang
Institute of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, and State Key Laboratory of Vegetation Structure, Function and Construction, Peking University
Shengli Tao
Institute of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, and State Key Laboratory of Vegetation Structure, Function and Construction, Peking University