Trends in malignant melanoma in the African Union from 1980-2023: Insights from the GBD 2023 study.

Abstract

e21522 Background: Malignant melanoma is the leading cause of skin cancer deaths worldwide. There is a lower incidence but higher mortality among African individuals, especially due to late diagnosis. However, African populations remain underrepresented in current epidemiological literature. This study aims to address this gap by examining trends in malignant melanoma-associated mortality and morbidity in the African Union. Methods: The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2023 was used to extract mortality data for malignant melanoma from 1980 to 2023. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs), age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPRs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per 100,000 people were assessed. The African Union was stratified by geographic region. The Joinpoint Regression Program was used to calculate the annual percentage changes (APCs) and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs). Results: In the African Union as a whole, there was a rising trend in the ASDRs and DALYs for malignant melanoma, despite interim declines. In 1980, the ASDR was 0.47, which rose to 0.67 by 2023 (AAPC = 0.85; 95% CI, 0.80–0.90). DALYs increased from 16.42 to 23.62 between 1990 and 2023 (AAPC = 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03–1.19). The ASIR and ASPR also demonstrated a similar overall upward trend, with intermittent periods of decline (AAPC = 1.80; 95% CI, 1.70–1.91; AAPC = 2.71; 95% CI, 2.48–2.95, respectively). Regionally, Southern Africa had the highest ASDRs and DALYs for most of the study period, followed by Central Africa. However, Central Africa exhibited higher ASDRs and DALYs in recent years. Meanwhile, Northern Africa had the lowest ASDRs and DALYs, although it had the steepest rise (AAPC = 1.53; 95% CI, 1.45–1.61; AAPC = 1.42; 95% CI 1.35 to 1.48 respectively). Similarly, Southern Africa demonstrated the highest ASIRs and ASPRs throughout most of the study period. However, Central Africa overtook Southern Africa in recent years. Northern Africa consistently exhibited the lowest incidence and prevalence. Conclusions: Malignant melanoma mortality and incidence increased throughout the study period across the African Union, highlighting the need for early detection and public health campaigns. Furthermore, targeted preventive strategies and improved resource allocation are essential for addressing regional disparities.