Trends in gastric cancer-related mortality across world bank income groups, 1980–2023: A retrospective analysis.

Abstract

e16043 Background: Gastric cancer is a major global health concern and a leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. This study examines trends in age-standardized death rates (ASDR) from 1980 to 2023 across countries stratified by World Bank income levels using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Methods: The GBD (2023) database was used to obtain the data. We included income based regions as classified by the world bank. ASDRs per 100,000 population among high income, lower income, lower middle income and upper middle income countries were assessed. We employed joinpoint regression analysis and estimated Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) values of the study period. A p value of less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: From 1980 to 2023, the largest decline in ASDR was observed in upper-middle-income countries, decreasing from 38.96 per 100,000 to 13.79 (AAPC: −2.44; 95% CI: −2.80 to −2.07; p < 0.000001). High-income countries also showed a consistent decline, from 24.16 per 100,000 to 7.25 (AAPC: −2.76; 95% CI: −2.90 to −2.61; p < 0.000001). Low-income countries maintained relatively stable ASDRs, from 13.37 per 100,000 to 11.50 (AAPC: −0.34; 95% CI: −0.44 to −0.24; p < 0.000001). In Lower-middle-income countries, the ASDR decreased from 9.69 per 100,000 to 6.90 (AAPC: −0.74; 95% CI: −0.93 to −0.56; p < 0.000001). Conclusions: Gastric cancer remains a major global health burden, with stark income-based disparities. Although ASDRs have declined in high- and upper-middle-income countries, progress is limited in low- and lower-middle-income settings. Expanding screening, improving early diagnosis, and ensuring equitable access to effective treatment are essential to further reduce global mortality. Gastric cancer mortality trends by world bank income groups: Age-Standardized Death Rate (ASDR) with 95% Uncertainty Interval (UI) in 2023 and Annual Percent Change (APC) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI). The (*) sign indicates p<0.05. Region APC (95% CI) ASDR 2023 (per 100,000) with 95% UI High Income 1980–1984: -1.98* (-2.48 – -1.47)1984–1987: -3.42* (-4.99 – -1.82)1987–1993: -2.23* (-2.59 – -1.87)1993–2021: -3.10* (-3.13 – -3.07)2021–2023: -0.06 (-1.69 – 1.58) 7.25 (6.45 to 7.89) Low Income 1980–1993: -0.51* (-0.59 – -0.44)1993–1998: -1.34* (-1.79 – -0.88)1998–2016: -0.69* (-0.74 – -0.64)2016–2020: 0.66 (-0.06 – 1.39)2020–2023: 2.85* (2.10 – 3.60) 11.50 (7.89 to 14.62) Lower Middle Income 1980–1989: -0.44* (-0.8145 – -0.07)1989–2010: -0.87* (-0.9863 – -0.76)2010–2015: -2.3539* (-3.5991 – -1.09)2015–2023: 0.25 (-0.18 – 0.70) 6.90 (5.15 to 8.82) Upper Middle Income 1980–1986: -1.80* (-2.85 – -0.74)1986–1990: 1.24 (-1.91 – 4.50)1990–2003: -1.80* (-2.17 – -1.44)2003–2014: -4.78* (-5.25 – -4.30)2014–2023: -2.49* (-3.06 – -1.93) 13.79 (11.48 to 16.74)