Trends and projections of the global and regional burden of multiple myeloma in adults aged 40 and over, 1990–2044

Abstract

Abstract The objective is to examine the data from the global burden of disease (GBD) 2021 to report on the global, regional, and national trends and rates related to the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for multiple myeloma in adults aged 40 and above. Data from the GBD 2021 was used in this study to evaluate the rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs related to multiple myeloma across global, regional, and national scales. To analyze these trends, joinpoint regression was applied to calculate the average annual percentage changes (AAPC). Further, the analysis was divided according to age, gender, region, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Projections extending to 2044 were also generated using the Nordpred model. From 1990 to 2021, an upward trend has been observed globally in the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs of multiple myeloma among adults aged 40 and older, with average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) of 0.53 (95% CI 0.41–0.64), 1.2 (95% CI 1.07–1.33), 0.19 (95% CI 0.07–0.31), and 0.15 (95% CI 0.04–0.26), respectively. Notably, middle SDI countries exhibited the most accelerated disease progression, demonstrating a 2.34 (95% CI 2.19–2.48) annual increase in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR)—over fourfold higher than the global average. The increasing global burden of multiple myeloma in adults aged 40 and older, especially in areas and nations with lower SDI levels, underscores the pressing requirement for customized public health initiatives and policies to tackle this escalating issue.