Trends and disparities in liver cancer mortality among adults with metabolic disorders in the United States, 1999–2023.

Abstract

e16229 Background: Liver cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide, with rising incidence linked to metabolic disorders. Conditions such as obesity, diabetes mellitus, and metabolic syndrome contribute substantially to non-viral liver carcinogenesis. However, long-term temporal trends and mortality disparities among adults with metabolic disorders in the United States remain incompletely characterized. Methods: Mortality data for liver cancer among adults with metabolic disorders were obtained from the centers for disease control and prevention (CDC) mortality database. Adults aged 25 years and older were included and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 were calculated. Temporal trends were evaluated using joinpoint regression and average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals. Results: From 1999–2023, AAMR for liver cancer in adults with metabolic disorders rose from 0.17 to 0.65 per 100,000 in the U.S., with an overall AAPC of 5.95% [95% CI 5.2–6.7]. Men had higher absolute mortality (0.25→0.93; AAPC 5.68%), while women showed a sharper recent rise (0.11→0.41; AAPC 7.08%), peaking at 11.86% annually after 2016. Hispanic/Latino (0.27→0.89; AAPC 6.73%) and Black populations (0.15→0.75; AAPC 6.15%) experienced steady increases, whereas White mortality accelerated post-2011 (AAPC 9.37%). Regionally, the West had highest rates, the South showed highest growth, and Northeast/Midwest had sharp recent increases. Rural mortality overtook urban by 2020 (0.50 vs. 0.48). Most deaths occurred in medical facilities (48.2%) or home (33.1%), with highest state rates in Hawaii (0.56), Texas (0.47), and Rhode Island (0.47). Conclusions: Mortality from liver cancer in adults with metabolic disorders rose sharply in the U.S. since 1999, with accelerating trends and marked disparities by sex, race/ethnicity, region, and urbanization. These findings highlight an urgent need for targeted metabolic risk reduction and equity-focused prevention strategies. Trends in Age-Adjusted Mortality Rates (AAMR) from 1999 to 2023 by demographic and geographic variables. Variable AAMR 1999 (per 100,000) AAMR 2023 (per 100,000) AAPC (95% CI) Overall 0.16 0.64 5.94* (5.22 – 6.67) Males 0.25 0.92 5.67* (4.82 – 6.5) Females 0.11 0.40 7.08* (5.79 – 8.38) White 0.16 0.63 6.12* (5.41 – 6.82) Black 0.15 0.75 6.15* (5.11 – 7.19) Hispanic or Latino 0.27 0.89 6.73* (5.98 – 7.48) Variable AAMR 1999 (per 100,000) AAMR 2020 (per 100,000) AAPC (95% CI) Urban 0.16 0.47 5.38* (4.43 – 6.33) Rural 0.19 0.50 5.73* (4.48 – 6.99) AAPC denotes the average annual percent change; * indicates p < 0.05.