Trend in prostate cancer mortality in Peru during the period 2001–2020 and its prediction to 2030.

Abstract

e17012 Background: According to the World Health Organization (WHO), prostate cancer ranks second in global incidence after breast cancer and fifth in mortality. In Peru, this neoplasm ranks first in incidence and third in mortality (following cervical and stomach cancers). Due to its epidemiological significance, the aim was to identify the trend in prostate cancer mortality in Peru during the period 2001–2020 and predict it to 2030. Methods: We analyzed records of deaths from prostate cancer in Peru from 2001–2020 based on the WHO mortality database. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 population were calculated, and changes in the annual percentage change (APC) of the trend and its segments were determined using joinpoint regression. We calculated the difference in ASMR between the extremes of the study period and predicted mortality to 2030 using Age-Period-Cohort modeling with a power5 link through the Nordpred package in R. Results: The ASMR for prostate cancer increased by 6.8% from 2001 to 2020, with distinct patterns in two segments (joinpoints). The first joinpoints showed a reduction of 2.5% (95% CI: -3.1; -2.1) between 2001 and 2018, while the second joinpoints exhibited a marked increase of 29.3% (95% CI: 16.7; 36.4) between 2018 and 2020; both joinpoints represented significant changes in the trend. Predictions indicated a 1.0% increase in ASMR for the period 2021–2025 compared to 2020 data, with an estimated further increase of 2.6% during the 2026–2030 period. Conclusions: Based on the analysis, prostate cancer mortality in Peru shows a dynamic trend, with initial reductions (between 2000-2018), but with a sharp rise (2018-2020) probably influenced by external factors (COVID-19 pandemic) and with a slight increase trend until 2030. Despite previous progress in reducing mortality rates, the significant increase since 2018 and projected continued growth underscore the urgent need to improve cancer strategies, including early detection, access to innovative treatments and strengthening health systems to mitigate this escalating public health burden. Estimates of cancer mortality trends in Peru during the period 2001–2020, and projections to 2030. 2001nd (ASMR) 2020nd (ASMR) Difference 2001-2020 Prediction 2021 to 2025 Prediction 2026 to 2030 Trend 2001-2018 Trend 2018-2020 n(%) Var(%) ASMR(95%CI) ASMR(95%CI) APC (95%CI) P-Value APC (95%CI) P-Value 806 (14.4%) ↑2686 (15.4%) 1880 (233.3) 1.0 (6.8%) ↑17.4(17.1; 17.8) ↑19.0(18.7; 19.3) ↓-2.5(-3.1; -2.1) <0.001 ↑29.3(16.7; 36.4) <0.001 ASMR: Age-standardized mortality rate, APC: Annual Percentage Change, 95%CI: 95% confidence interval, nd: Number of deaths, %: Percentage, Var: Percentage change ([2020 value-2001 value]/2001 value). ASMR compared to the previous data: Increased, Maintained, Decreased.