Trend analysis and projection of the gastric cancer disease burden in Taiwan during 1990–2021: An analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021

Abstract

Background Gastric cancer is a serious health threat to people in Taiwan. This study reports gastric cancer burden and trends in Taiwan, from 1990 to 2021, and projects the incidence and mortality trends through 2036. Methods Data on gastric cancer burden in Taiwan came from the 2021 GBD database. Trend changes were evaluated via joinpoint analysis, with the Age-Period-Cohort model estimating age, period, and cohort influences. Decomposition analysis measured contributions of population growth, aging, and epidemiological factors, and the BAPC model forecast future burden. Results Between 1990 and 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rate (ASDR) of gastric cancer in Taiwan all showed a decreasing trend. In terms of absolute burden, the number of incident cases in 2021 was 4,839 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 4,272–5,352), representing a 41.20% increase, prevalent cases reached 9,835 (95% UI: 8,664–11,032), a 60.36% rise, deaths totaled 3,799 (95% UI: 3,345–4,220), up by 29.17%, and DALYs were 79,425 (95% UI: 71,168–87,813), with a 0.19% decrease. A significant gender disparity was observed, with males bearing a heavier burden. Projections indicate that incident cases and deaths will continue to rise through 2036. Conclusions Across the past 32 years, gastric cancer in Taiwan has exhibited a declining relative burden, yet the absolute burden has risen consistently and is forecast to keep increasing over the next 15 years. Precision risk control measures and context-specific public health policies are required to alleviate this burden.