Tissue-free circulating tumor DNA assay and patient outcome in a phase III trial of FOLFOX-based adjuvant chemotherapy (Alliance N0147).

Abstract

3504 Background: Among patients with resected node-positive colon cancer, nearly 30% will relapse despite standard adjuvant chemotherapy. Analysis of molecular residual disease (MRD) using circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) may enable risk stratification for tumor recurrence and inform adjuvant treatment decisions. Methods: Postsurgical ctDNA was analyzed in patients with stage III colon carcinoma who participated in a phase 3 trial of adjuvant FOLFOX alone or combined with cetuximab (n = 3084) [NCCTG N0147]. We utilized a tissue-free epigenomic assay for ctDNA detection (Guardant Reveal) with sampling prior to start of adjuvant therapy. Among ctDNA positives, epigenomic tumor fraction (TF) was estimated and ctDNA genotyping was done with Guardant360 (panel of 739 genes). Median follow-up was 6.1 years (yr). Study endpoints included time-to-recurrence (TTR), disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) analyzed by Kaplan–Meier method. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess prognostic utility of ctDNA status adjusting for confounders. Interaction between ctDNA and clinicopathological features were assessed. Results: Among 2260 patients with evaluable ctDNA data, 461 (20.4%) were ctDNA positive.Tumors were significantly associated with higher T, N stage, BRAF V600E , high grade, obstruction/perforation, and worse performance status. Positive vs negative ctDNA was significantly associated with shorter TTR (hazard ratio [HR] 4.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.65-5.13, P < 0.0001), poorer DFS (HR 3.74, CI 3.18-4.39, P < 0.0001] and OS (HR 3.17, CI 2.63-3.83, P < 0.0001), adjusting for covariates and tissue MMR, KRAS and BRAF V600E . ctDNA positive vs negative patients had 3y DFS of 36.4% (95%CI 32.2-41.2%) vs 82.5% (95% CI 80.0-84.4%), respectively. Adverse prognosis was consistent across subgroups (all P < 0.05), with stronger detrimental effects for positive ctDNA in N1 (vs. N2), T1/2 (vs T3 or 4), and mismatch repair deficient tumors [interaction P = 0.0002 to 0.041). Among patients with positive ctDNA, TF in those who recurred/died within 3 yr was double of those who remained recurrence-free ( P = 0.0001). High vs. low ctDNA TF ( > vs ≤ median) further stratified TTR (HR 1.48, CI 1.17-1.88, P = 0.0011), DFS (HR 1.52, CI 1.21-1.92, P = 0.0004) and OS (HR 1.58, CI 1.21-2.07, P = 0.0009), adjusting for confounders. ctDNA positive cases, . Analyses of ctDNA detection by site of recurrence, ctDNA clearance, and genomic variant detection are ongoing. Conclusions: In the largest study evaluating tissue-free epigenomic-based MRD detection, we demonstrate a robust prognostic utility of postsurgical ctDNA. Tumor fraction provided further patient stratification and analysis is ongoing to identify a subgroup based on TF that may be unlikely to clear ctDNA despite adjuvant chemotherapy.