The spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of urban–rural integration over the past eight years in China: Evidence from 31 provinces

Abstract

Urban-rural integration development is essential for overcoming the inherent barriers between urban and rural areas and achieving coordinated regional development. This study uses panel data, along with methods such as the entropy method, coupling coordination degree model, and geographic detector model, to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and main influencing factors of urban-rural integration development across 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China from 2015 to 2022. The findings indicate that: (1) The overall level of urban-rural integration in China shows an upward trend, but the growth rate is uneven, exhibiting a phased pattern of “rapid growth—slow development—fluctuating rise.” (2) There are significant regional differences, with eastern regions leading in development, central regions rising rapidly, and western regions showing huge potential. (3) Key driving factors promoting urban-rural integration include internet broadband access, per capita disposable income, education expenditure, unemployment insurance coverage, and greening coverage. Based on these findings, it is recommended to develop phased strategies, implement a regional gradient development approach, and prioritize strengthening key areas to systematically promote urban-rural integration.