The socioeconomic returns to citizenship: A randomized controlled trial

J Jens Hainmueller (Department of Political Science) E Elisa Cascardi (Immigration Policy Lab) M Michael Hotard (Immigration Policy Lab) R Rey Koslowski (Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy at the University at Albany (State University of New York)) D Duncan Lawrence (Immigration Policy Lab) V Vasil Yasenov (Immigration Policy Lab) D David D. Laitin (Immigration Policy Lab)

Abstract

Based on observational studies, conventional wisdom suggests that citizenship carries economic benefits. We leverage a randomized experiment from New York where low-income registrants with permanent residency who wanted to become citizens entered a lottery to receive fee vouchers to naturalize. Voucher recipients were about 36 p.p. more likely to naturalize. Yet, we find no discernible effects of access to citizenship on multiple economic outcomes, including income, credit scores, access to credit, financial distress, and employment. Leveraging a multidimensional immigrant integration index, we similarly find no measurable effects on noneconomic integration. However, we do find that citizenship reduces fears of deportation. Explaining divergence from past studies, our results also reveal evidence of positive selection into citizenship, suggesting that observational studies are susceptible to selection bias.

Article Details

Volume / Issue Vol. 123, Issue 5
Published February 03, 2026
ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher National Academy of Sciences

Authors (7)

J

Jens Hainmueller

Department of Political Science

E

Elisa Cascardi

Immigration Policy Lab

M

Michael Hotard

Immigration Policy Lab

R

Rey Koslowski

Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy at the University at Albany (State University of New York)

D

Duncan Lawrence

Immigration Policy Lab

V

Vasil Yasenov

Immigration Policy Lab

D

David D. Laitin

Immigration Policy Lab