The power of bridging decision scales: Model coupling for advanced climate policy analysis
Abstract
Climate policy faces increasingly complex challenges that span multiple human decision scales in nature–society systems. Contemporary climate policy models, while valuable and increasingly versatile in handling spatial and temporal scales, struggle to capture interacting multiscale decisions on the socioeconomic side. This perspective draws attention to the power of coupling among different modeling families, taking integrated assessment models (IAM), computable general equilibrium models (CGE), and agent-based models (ABM) as examples. Recent computational advances, maturity of models, availability of data, and interdisciplinary expertise make model coupling an increasingly feasible, effective, and useful tool for climate policy analysis. We examine the unique contributions of each modeling approach, highlight synergies from uniting their strengths, and discuss alternatives to and conditions for coupling. In addressing methodological challenges, we present examples of effective coupling of IAM–ABM–CGE, emphasizing the importance of maintaining model integrity while enhancing policy relevance. By bridging human decision scales and leveraging complementary strengths, coupled models can provide nuanced insights into climate–economy interactions, ultimately supporting effective and equitable—not just efficient and optimal—climate policies.
Article Details
Journal Info
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Sciences
Authors (20)
Tatiana Filatova
Multi Actor Systems Department, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology
Joos Akkerman
Multi Actor Systems Department, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology
Francesco Bosello
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change Foundation
Theodoros Chatzivasileiadis
Multi Actor Systems Department, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology
Ignasi Cortés Arbués
Multi Actor Systems Department, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology
Amineh Ghorbani
Multi Actor Systems Department, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology
Olga Ivanova
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Nina Knittel
Economics of Climate and Environmental Change Group, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz
Jan Kwakkel
Multi Actor Systems Department, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology
Francesco Lamperti
Resources for the Future and Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change Foundation European Institute on Economics and the Environment
Nicholas R. Magliocca
Department of Geography, University of Alabama
Giacomo Marangoni
Multi Actor Systems Department, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology
Stefan Nabernegg
Economics of Climate and Environmental Change Group, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz
Anton Pichler
Institute for Transport and Logistics Management, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna 1020, & Complexity Science Hub Vienna
Adrian Poujon
Multi Actor Systems Department, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology
Karolina Safarzynska
Department of Political Economy, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw
Alessandro Taberna
Multi Actor Systems Department, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology
Mariësse A. E. van Sluisveld
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Liz Verbeek
Multi Actor Systems Department, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology
Taoyuan Wei
Center for International Climate Research