The global burden of thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2023, with forecasts to 2050.

Abstract

e22611 Background: Thyroid cancer is an important contributor to global health burden. Comprehensive and comparative estimation of thyroid cancer burden can inform policy decisions and public health interventions to reduce incidence, morbidity, and mortality. This study provides thyroid cancer estimates from 1990 to 2023, with forecasts to 2050. Methods: Using estimation methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023 (GBD 2023) we estimated thyroid cancer incidence, mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability adjusted life-years (DALYs). YLLs were calculated using life expectancy estimates. Prevalence and YLDs were calculated from expected survival, disease sequelae, and disability weights. DALYs were the sum of YLLs and YLDs. Results are presented with 95% Uncertainty Intervals (95% UI). Results: Globally in 2023 there were an estimated 304,000 (95% UI: 221,000 – 386,000) thyroid cancer cases and 52,200 (44,700 – 61,500) deaths, contributing to 1,560,000 (1,310,000 – 1,870,000) DALYs. Thyroid cancer burden was substantially higher in females than males, with 983,000 (760,000 – 1,250,000) and 577,000 (478,000 – 742,000) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2023, global age-standardized rates for both sexes combined increased by 50.5% (5.2 – 119.8%) for incidence but remained stable for mortality (-4.0% [-18.9 – 16.3%]) and DALYs (4.3% [-13.6 – 30.3%]). These trends varied by World Bank Income Group: age-standardized incidence rates increased over time in the low (129.2% [38.1 – 306.7%]), lower middle (135.8% [44.5 – 292.7%]), and upper middle (51.3% [6.5 – 121.2%]) income groups, but only changed by 19.2% (-15.0 – 72.1%) in the high income group; age-standardized mortality rates changed by 46.8% (-0.4 – 135.8%) and 34.0% (-6.2 – 107.5%) in the low and lower middle income groups, respectively, but decreased in the high (-27.8% [-33.9 to -21.7%]) and upper middle (-18.5% [-32.6 to -3.4%]) income groups. Between 2024 and 2050 the age-standardized rates were forecast to remain relatively stable for incidence (5.0% [-0.5 – 10.3%]) and mortality (2.2% [-4.5 – 10.2%]), while globally there are forecast to be an estimated 464,000 (305,000 – 614,000) cases and 101,000 (76,400 – 137,000) deaths in 2050. Conclusions: These GBD 2023 estimates provide comprehensive estimates of the substantial health burden of thyroid cancer globally, highlighting a continued need for public health efforts targeting prevention, timely diagnosis, and treatment. These estimates also suggest global disparities in thyroid cancer burden over time.