The effects of climate change on EO/IR propagation using CMIP6 global atmospheric forecasting simulations

Abstract

Abstract Climate change-driven atmospheric effects are of particular concern to those who operate electro-optic and infrared (EO/IR) sensors, as atmospheric constituents such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, and aerosols drive the absorption and scattering effects necessary to characterize deployed optical system performance. Current models of EO/IR propagation are fed by statistics built off the historical state of the atmosphere by utilizing ground based observations, satellite data, or reanalysis datasets. Such methods are effective at characterizing EO/IR propagation for historical time periods, but do little to inform decisions related to future sensor deployment. This work utilizes future projections of atmospheric variables from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), an international collection of climate models, to characterize atmospheric transmittance, a metric closely tied to EO/IR performance. Analysis of regional transmittance (particularly in the long-wave infrared) reveals drops by as much as 20% from 2015-2100 for a path as short as 2 km - this is nearly a doubling of the band averaged extinction coefficient.