The dynamic connectedness among infectious diseases, geopolitical risks, cryptocurrency, and commodity markets: Evidence from a partial and multiple wavelet analysis

Abstract

This study investigates the co-movements between prominent financial assets—crude oil, natural gas, gold, and Bitcoin—and uncertainty indices, including the Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker (IDEMV) and the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), from January 2017 to January 2023. By employing advanced wavelet techniques—Wavelet Power Spectrum (WPS), Bi-Wavelet Coherence (WCA), Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC), and Partial Wavelet Coherence (PWC)—we analyze their time- and frequency-dependent responses to market shocks. The results reveal that Bitcoin and WTI exhibit time-varying sensitivity to IDEMV, particularly at short- and medium-term frequencies, highlighting their vulnerability to health-related crises like COVID-19. In contrast, gold and natural gas respond more strongly to GPR, with gold demonstrating a long-term leading role during geopolitical uncertainties, while Bitcoin and WTI lead in health-related shocks. The Russia-Ukraine conflict further amplified GPR’s impact on Bitcoin and increased natural gas’s vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions. These findings underscore the need for tailored strategies to address health and geopolitical risks. Policymakers should enhance crisis-response frameworks for Bitcoin and crude oil, while investors can reduce uncertainty by diversifying portfolios with resilient assets like gold and natural gas.