The accelerating loss and shifting dynamics of US tidal wetlands

Abstract

Abstract Tidal wetlands are critical ecosystems for coastal sustainability, yet despite growing regulatory protection, they continue to decline globally. Their long-term resilience to interacting chronic stressors and extreme events remains uncertain, in part because comprehensive, high-frequency monitoring has been lacking. While direct land-use conversion has been substantially restricted in the United States, the true trajectory of these protected habitats has remained unclear. Here, we use four decades of high-resolution satellite records to analyze the shifting dynamics of US tidal wetlands. We reveal a widespread and previously unquantified acceleration in the rate of tidal wetland loss, amounting to a net loss of −1640 km 2 at the rate of −40.53 km 2 year −1 , accelerating by −0.73 km 2 year −2 , of which tidal marsh contributed the majority of this loss with a cumulative decline of 1567 km 2 . Furthermore, we show that the drivers of this decline are shifting: while chronic stressors like relative sea level rise have caused the largest cumulative loss (~60% of the total area loss), acute shocks from extreme weather now dominate (1.4 times that of the chronic stressors) the acceleration of that loss. By contrast, direct human activities were a minor driver, accounting for only 4% of total observed losses. These findings indicate that the resilience of these protected ecosystems is declining. It provides an urgent warning that existing conservation strategies, initially concerned with direct human impacts and increasingly focused on relative sea level rise as a slow-moving pressure, are ill-equipped for a future of increasing extreme weather events and highlights the need to redesign adaptation policies.