Techno-economic optimization and sensitivity analysis of a hybrid renewable microgrid for local market electrification in developing countries

Abstract

Abstract Reliable electricity supply is essential for sustaining commercial activity in rural markets, yet energy planning studies in Bangladesh predominantly rely on residential load assumptions that inadequately represent market-specific demand patterns. This study presents a comprehensive techno-economic and environmental assessment of a grid-interactive hybrid renewable microgrid for local market electrification, using Nazipur Noor market as a case study. A realistic market-based load profile capturing pronounced daytime demand concentration, peak coincidence, and seasonal variability is developed. The proposed system integrates solar photovoltaic (PV), wind turbine (WT), biogas generation (BioGen), battery energy storage (BESS), and utility grid support, optimized using HOMER Pro with hourly resource and demand data. Among 1,056 simulated configurations, the optimal PV–WT–BioGen–BESS–Grid system achieves a net present cost (NPC) of USD 91,255.5 and cost of energy (COE) of USD 0.0167/kWh, with 90.97% renewable fraction while limiting grid purchases to 8.51%. Solar PV, wind, and biogas contribute 48.4%, 25.9%, and 17.2% of annual generation, respectively. The system reduces CO₂ emissions by 83.5% compared with grid-dependent scenarios. Sensitivity analyses identify wind speed, hub height, and electricity sellback rate as dominant performance factors. Results demonstrate renewable-rich microgrids offer cost-effective, scalable solutions for sustainable market electrification in Bangladesh and similar developing regions.