Susceptible host dynamics explain pathogen resilience to perturbations

Abstract

Interventions to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 significantly disrupted the transmission of other pathogens. As interventions lifted, whether and when human pathogens would eventually return to their prepandemic dynamics remains to be answered. Here, we present a framework for estimating pathogen resilience based on how fast epidemic patterns return to their prepandemic dynamics. By analyzing time series data from Hong Kong, Canada, Korea, and the United States, we quantify the resilience of common respiratory pathogens and further predict when each pathogen will eventually return to its prepandemic dynamics. Our predictions are able to distinguish which pathogens should have returned already, and deviations from these predictions reveal long-term impacts of pandemic perturbations. We find a faster rate of susceptible replenishment underlies pathogen resilience and sensitivity to both large and small perturbations. Overall, our analysis highlights the persistent nature of common respiratory pathogens compared to vaccine-preventable infections, such as measles.