Survival analysis based on markers of progression in melanoma: A single-center comparison of survival in patients with high vs low biomarkers.

Abstract

e21573 Background: In melanoma, biomarkers such as lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), and the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) have been linked to disease progression. This study aims to compare survival outcomes in melanoma patients based on high versus low levels of these biomarkers, assessing their impact on survival within their respective groups. By evaluating these biomarkers, we hope to identify potential prognostic indicators that could guide treatment decisions and improve personalized care in melanoma management. Methods: We conducted a retrospective survival analysis of 43 melanoma patients, excluding 16 due to incomplete data at Dignity Health Cancer Institute in Phoenix, Arizona. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to compare survival between groups with high vs low levels of biomarkers. Patients were stratified by median values for LDH, NLR, and the presence of detectable ctDNA. Patients included in the analysis were treated systemically with pembrolizumab, encorafenib/binimetinib, nivolumab, or ipilimumab/nivolumab. Survival curves were generated, and statistical significance was assessed using log-rank tests. Data was sourced from our electronic medical record and Signatera™ assay to obtain the primary endpoints. Specimens were standardized in accordance with Natera’s™ specifications. All analyses were executed in GraphPad Prism software. Results: When stratifying by ctDNA, 18 patients had undetectable ctDNA, while 9 had detectable ctDNA with an average level of 1330 (SD = 2067). The median survival for the high ctDNA group was 220 days, whereas the low ctDNA group had significantly longer survival, with only two deaths observed (p = 0.006) within the time period. For LDH, using a cutoff of 204 (IQR = 90.5), patients with high LDH had a median survival of 220 days, while those with low LDH had a significantly longer survival (p = 0.004). When comparing NLR with a cutoff at 2.94 (IQR = 3.7), no significant difference in survival was found between high and low NLR groups (p = 0.72). Conclusions: Our findings show that patients with higher levels of ctDNA and LDH have significantly shorter survival compared to those with low levels of these biomarkers. While NLR did not show a significant survival difference, the study suggests that higher ctDNA and LDH could be important markers for identifying patients at greater risk of poor outcomes. These results underscore the potential value of monitoring these biomarkers to assess disease progression and survival in melanoma patients. Further studies with larger cohorts are needed to validate these findings and refine melanoma prognostic models.