Suitability of paddy cultivation in the Western province of Sri Lanka under different climate change scenarios

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to global agriculture, with implications for food security. Regions that rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture, especially in developing countries, such as the Western province of Sri Lanka are particularly vulnerable. The current research aims to assess future climate expectations and their impacts on paddy cultivation in Sri Lanka’s Western province for the purpose of identifying measures to address the multi-faceted consequences of climate change. The main objective of the study was to determine the spatial suitability of paddy in the Western province for the years 2030 and 2050 under different climate change scenarios. Rice occurrence points and bioclimatic variables were employed to model the spatial suitability of paddy under current, 2030 SSP 245, 2030 SSP 585, 2050 SSP 245, and 2050 SSP 585 climatic conditions using ‘biomod2’ package of RStudio software. The results revealed that areas unsuitable for paddy cultivation increased under 2030 SSP 245 (1,437.30 km 2 ), 2030 SSP 585 (1,594.80 km 2 ), 2050 SSP 245 (2,624.40 km 2 ), and 2050 SSP 585 (2,627.10 km 2 ) conditions when compared with current (1,044 km 2 ) climatic conditions. Further, the simulation indicated that the species range change between the current climatic conditions and 2030 SSP 245 (−16.58), 2030 SSP 585 (−13.62), 2050 SSP 245 (−37.03), and 2050 SSP 585 (−50.51) is negative. The percentage loss in paddy range between current and 2030 SSP 245, 2030 SSP 585, 2050 SSP 245 and 2050 SSP 585 climatic conditions were shown to be 52.94%, 47.89%, 22.07% and 67.85%, respectively. Therefore, the results of the present study highlight the need for a comprehensive approach that integrates climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture to ensure food security and to protect vital ecosystems. The findings of this study can be utilized by researchers, policymakers, and practitioners aiming to achieve global sustainability goals.