Structural barriers control the spatial extent of slow earthquake slip

Abstract

Abstract Recent seismological and geodetic observations have revealed shallow slow earthquakes on subduction megathrusts, offering an opportunity to explore the factors controlling megathrust slip. Identifying these controlling factors helps constrain the potential updip extent of future megathrust ruptures. Here, we investigate the factors controlling the spatial extent of shallow slow earthquakes by integrating tremor locations with uncertainty estimates, detailed bathymetry data, and multichannel seismic data for the 2020–2021 slow earthquake sequence in the Kumano-nada region of the Nankai Trough. Tremor probability maps reveal that the updip, downdip, and lateral limits of tremor activity coincide with distinct structural boundaries. These include the kink or branching of the décollement, a deep-seated strike-slip fault, and the inner–outer wedge boundary. These structures likely act as geometrical or mechanical barriers, further influenced by variations in pore-fluid pressure and by the subducted Paleo–Zenisu ridge. The results indicate that megathrust geometry, material properties of the overriding prism, fluid distribution, and ridge subduction jointly govern the spatial extent of slow earthquakes, emphasizing the need to account for these factors in assessing the potential extent of future megathrust ruptures.