Speed and quality of complex strategic decisions

Abstract

Many strategic decisions involve both substantial complexity and time pressure, but the association between decision speed and decision quality of cognitively demanding strategic decisions is not well understood. This paper presents evidence on this question using a setting with exceptionally detailed and precise information about decision times and decision quality—it analyses move-by-move data from in-person professional chess tournaments. Decision quality is measured by comparing actual moves to a computational benchmark of best moves constructed using the artificial intelligence of a chess engine. The results show that faster decisions are associated with higher decision quality, even after accounting for computational complexity, distinctiveness between alternatives, and time pressure. Greater computational complexity and lower distinctiveness between move alternatives are associated with longer decision times, whereas greater time pressure is associated with shorter decision times. All three factors are associated with lower decision quality. We discuss the findings against the predictions of different decision models in which individuals sequentially acquire information about alternatives with uncertain valuations, extending theories originally developed in the context of nonstrategic decisions to a strategic environment.