Species range shifts often speed ahead of their modeled climatic niches
Abstract
Anticipating how species distributions will shift with climate change is key for biodiversity conservation and management. Commonly, species’ range shifts are observed by analyzing changes in occurrence or abundance data through time, or predicted across different climate change scenarios by modeling species’ climatic niches. However, it remains unclear how well these climate-based forecasts align with empirically documented range shifts from monitoring efforts. Here, we tested the congruence between modeled range shifts, predicted using climatic niche models, and documented range shifts, derived from empirical observations collected over recent decades, for more than 9,500 range shifts across over 3,500 marine and terrestrial species. We found that documented and modeled range shifts tend to align in latitudinal direction, with greater alignment for marine (76%) than terrestrial (56%) cases. However, even when the directions aligned, documented shifts exceeded modeled shifts in 62% of cases, nearly twice as often as they lagged behind (38%), and their median rates were four times faster than those of the modeled shifts. Our findings suggest that climate-based models can approximate observed range dynamics under specific conditions, particularly over long time periods and restricted spatial areas, when habitats remain well connected and under low climate fluctuations over time. These insights provide valuable guidance for both improving predictions and informing responses to climate-driven biodiversity redistribution.
Article Details
Journal Info
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Sciences
Authors (24)
Brunno F. Oliveira
Centre de Synthèse et d’Analyse sur la Biodiversité, Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversité
Romain Bertrand
Centre de Recherche sur la Biodiversité et l’Environnement (UMR5300), CNRS, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Institut National Polytechnique, Université Toulouse 3 - Paul Sabatier
Malin L. Pinsky
Nicolas Casajus
Fondation pour la recherche sur la biodiversité: Centre de Synthèse et d'Analyse sur la Biodiversité
Barrett W. Wolfe
Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania
Brett R. Scheffers
Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida
Fabricio Villalobos
Red de Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología A.C.,
Gaël Grenouillet
Centre de Recherche sur la Biodiversité et l’Environnement (UMR5300), CNRS, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Institut National Polytechnique, Université Toulouse 3 - Paul Sabatier
Gretta T. Pecl
Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania
I-Ching Chen
Department of Life Sciences, National Cheng Kung University
J. Alex Baecher
Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida
Jake A. Lawlor
Department of Biology, McGill University
Jennifer Sunday
Department of Biology, McGill University
Jérôme Murienne
Centre de Recherche sur la Biodiversité et l’Environnement (UMR5300), CNRS, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Institut National Polytechnique, Université Toulouse 3 - Paul Sabatier
Jonathan Rolland
Centre de Recherche sur la Biodiversité et l’Environnement (UMR5300), CNRS, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Institut National Polytechnique, Université Toulouse 3 - Paul Sabatier
Laura M. Thompson
National Climate Adaptation Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey
Lesley T. Lancaster
School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen
Madeleine A. Rubenstein
National Climate Adaptation Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey
Nikki A. Moore
Department of Biology, McGill University
R. M. W. J. Bandara
Graduate Program in Ecology and Evolution, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
Sarah E. Diamond
Department of Biology, Case Western Reserve University
Sarah R. Weiskopf
National Climate Adaptation Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey
Jonathan Lenoir
Lise Comte
Conservation Science Partners, Inc.