Spatiotemporal analysis of nontraditional security issues evolution globally: evidence from news big data

Abstract

Abstract Since the twenty-first century, global non-traditional security (NTS) challenges have increasingly threatened society. This study uses event data from the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) to examine how the frequency and impact of NTS issues have evolved worldwide from 2000 to 2023. Building on a newly constructed global panel dataset covering 153 countries, two complementary indicators, the CEN (count the number of event) and NSII (non-traditional security impact index), are calculated to measure the scale and severity of NTS activities. The analysis identifies five distinct phases in the global evolution of NTS issues, with peaks in 2012 and 2016 driven primarily by surges in terrorism and social instability in the Middle East, South Asia, and parts of Africa. Over time, NTS hotspots have gradually shifted toward more dispersed and transregional patterns, reflecting the diffusion of risks across interconnected systems. These findings underscore the need for adaptive, cross-border governance and continuous monitoring mechanisms. This study contributes a global, data-driven framework for tracking the spatiotemporal evolution of NTS risks and informing policy responses.