Spatiotemporal aggregation and population distribution characteristics of HIV/AIDS in Nanchang city: A monitoring analysis from 2012–2021

Abstract

AIDS is a major public health issue. As a transportation and economic hub in central China, Nanchang has frequent population mobility and unbalanced regional development, making it urgent to explore the prevalence characteristics of HIV/AIDS. Based on HIV/AIDS surveillance data in Nanchang from 2012 to 2021, this study innovatively integrates the Joinpoint regression model with spatiotemporal geographic information technology to construct an epidemiological analysis framework of “time-space-population”. The results show that a total of 3,789 HIV/AIDS infection cases were reported in the decade, with the growth rate of new cases (5.4%) significantly higher than the population growth rate (2.1%). There is a negative correlation between incidence and mortality, and men and the elderly (≥65 years old) are at prominent infection risk. Spatially, cases show significant heterogeneity, with “high-high” clustering areas concentrated in the city center and gradually expanding to surrounding areas, which is related to factors such as population density. The study provides a scientific basis for targeted interventions for men and the elderly, optimization of prevention and control strategies, and regional collaboration.