Spatio-temporal evolution analysis of land-use carbon effects driven by new quality productive forces: a case study of Hubei province

Abstract

Abstract This study investigated the spatiotemporal evolution and coupling relationship of land use carbon effects driven by new quality productive forces (NQPF) in Hubei Province, China, using remote sensing data (2000–2020) and socioeconomic statistics (2005–2020). An NQPF evaluation system comprising 19 indicators across three dimensions was constructed using a combined weighting method integrating entropy, coefficient of variation, CRITIC, and principal component analysis. The Tapio decoupling model and Moran’s I spatial autocorrelation were employed to examine the NQPF-carbon emission relationship. Results indicated that: (1) Net carbon emissions increased from 4118.38 × 104 t to 19,867.15 × 104 t (382.4% growth), with construction land contributing 98.1% of total carbon sources by 2020. (2) The NQPF index rose from 0.152 to 0.860 (465.8% growth), with the “new objects of labor” dimension receiving the highest weight (0.5921), corroborating the green development-oriented nature of NQPF. (3) All three periods exhibited “weak decoupling,” with elasticity coefficients declining from 0.740 to 0.261, indicating strengthening carbon constraints. (4) No significant spatial clustering was detected (|Z|< 1.96); riverside cities (Wuhan, Xiangyang, Yichang) formed “isolated high-emission centers” accounting for 54.2% of provincial emissions. This study pioneers the integration of NQPF theory into land use carbon research, providing scientific basis for regional low-carbon transition in central China.