Southern Ocean seabird population shifts over the Holocene revealed by peat sequestration of mercury from guano

C Chuxian Li (Institute of Geography and Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern) S Stephen J. Roberts (British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council) M Martin Grosjean (Institute of Geography and Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern) A Adrien Mestrot (Institute of Geography and Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern) M Martin Wille (Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Bern) R Richard A. Phillips (British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council) M Maxime Enrico (Université de Pau et des Pays de l’Adour, LFCR, E2S UPPA, CNRS) K Kevin Bishop (Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences) U Ulf Skyllberg (Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences) D Dmitri Mauquoy (School of Geosciences, University of Aberdeen) C Clemens von Scheffer (School of Geosciences, University of Aberdeen) T Thomas Theurer (School of Geosciences, University of Aberdeen) D David Muirhead (School of Geosciences, University of Aberdeen) A Alex Whittle (British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council) A Angela Gallego-Sala (Geography Department, University of Exeter) J Jeroen E. Sonke (Géosciences Environnement Toulouse, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, IRD, Toulouse) F François De Vleeschouwer (Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (IRL3351 IFAECI/CNRS-CONICET-IRD-UBA), Universidad de Buenos Aires) N Nathalie Van der Putten (Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) P Pascale Braconnot (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay) O Olivier Marti (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay) S Stefan Osterwalder (Department of Geography, Hydrology and Climate, University of Zurich) N Nina Buchmann (Grassland Sciences, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, ETH Zurich) T Thomas Frölicher (Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern) E Eva Anthamatten (Institute of Geography and Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern) A Aurea C. Chiaia-Hernández (Institute of Geography and Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern) P Petra Zahajská (Institute of Geography and Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern) C Catherine Jeandel (LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD) K Krystyna M. Saunders (Institute for Antarctic and Marine Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart) S Sae Yun Kwon (Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology) D Dingyong Wang (College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University) R Richard Bindler (Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University) L Louise Sime (British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council) D Dominic A. Hodgson (British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council)

Abstract

Monitored seabird populations have declined by up to 70% worldwide since the 1950s. Yet, data on long-term seabird population dynamics prior to the anthropogenic era are largely unknown. This limits our ability to understand future population trajectories, particularly in the Southern Ocean, where seabirds are facing multiple environmental threats. Here, we use mercury (Hg) derived from seabird guano in peatland catchments as a tracer of colony population sizes on sub-Antarctic Bird Island (South Georgia). Peat Hg flux and isotope signature results show that the first sustained seabird colonies after deglaciation were established on the island between 6800 and 6100 years ago, predating evidence for colonization on other sub-Antarctic islands by more than 1,000 y. The four subsequent periods with large local seabird populations occurred during phases of less intense Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. Our study unveils significant and repeated millennial-scale shifts in seabird abundance in response to natural climate changes, implying that the present-day increase in westerly wind intensity may lead to further declines in seabird populations in the Southern Ocean.

Article Details

Volume / Issue Vol. 123, Issue 16
Published April 21, 2026
ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher National Academy of Sciences

Authors (33)

C

Chuxian Li

Institute of Geography and Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern

S

Stephen J. Roberts

British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council

M

Martin Grosjean

Institute of Geography and Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern

A

Adrien Mestrot

Institute of Geography and Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern

M

Martin Wille

Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Bern

R

Richard A. Phillips

British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council

M

Maxime Enrico

Université de Pau et des Pays de l’Adour, LFCR, E2S UPPA, CNRS

K

Kevin Bishop

Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

U

Ulf Skyllberg

Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

D

Dmitri Mauquoy

School of Geosciences, University of Aberdeen

C

Clemens von Scheffer

School of Geosciences, University of Aberdeen

T

Thomas Theurer

School of Geosciences, University of Aberdeen

D

David Muirhead

School of Geosciences, University of Aberdeen

A

Alex Whittle

British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council

A

Angela Gallego-Sala

Geography Department, University of Exeter

J

Jeroen E. Sonke

Géosciences Environnement Toulouse, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, IRD, Toulouse

F

François De Vleeschouwer

Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (IRL3351 IFAECI/CNRS-CONICET-IRD-UBA), Universidad de Buenos Aires

N

Nathalie Van der Putten

Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

P

Pascale Braconnot

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay

O

Olivier Marti

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay

S

Stefan Osterwalder

Department of Geography, Hydrology and Climate, University of Zurich

N

Nina Buchmann

Grassland Sciences, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, ETH Zurich

T

Thomas Frölicher

Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern

E

Eva Anthamatten

Institute of Geography and Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern

A

Aurea C. Chiaia-Hernández

Institute of Geography and Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern

P

Petra Zahajská

Institute of Geography and Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern

C

Catherine Jeandel

LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD

K

Krystyna M. Saunders

Institute for Antarctic and Marine Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart

S

Sae Yun Kwon

Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology

D

Dingyong Wang

College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University

R

Richard Bindler

Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University

L

Louise Sime

British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council

D

Dominic A. Hodgson

British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council