Socioeconomic and climatic factors influencing desertification in Saudi Arabia through an ARDL approach

Abstract

Abstract In this study, based on the sample covering 1990–2023, we use ARDL methods to test potential driving forces of Desertification (DS), including key socioeconomic and climatic determinants in Saudi Arabia: renewable energy consumption (RE) , economic growth (EG) , CO₂ emissions(CO2E), temperature anomaly(TA) and vegetation index(VI). To address the lack of time-series-integrated data studies in Saudi Arabia, this article uses ARDL and VECM models to capture short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium. The findings indicate that a 1% increase in renewable energy results in an average reduction of 0.1003% in desertification . In contrast, improvements in the vegetation index have been more effective and could reduce desertification by up to 8.7%.Conversely, improved economic growth and increased CO2 emissions significantly aggravate land degradation. These results illustrate the need to reconcile Vision 2030’s development aims with environmental protection. Recommendations on policy: Increase the proportion of renewable energy to 50% of total energy consumption by 2030; expand afforestation to restore 10% of degraded land per year; work toward universal environmental protection for major development projects at a rate commensurate with the scale and potential impact. .