Science capital is related to probabilistic reasoning

Abstract

Abstract Recognizing trustworthy scientific information is crucial in the current information era, and having sufficient resources to interact with and make use of scientific information is more important than ever. Because information is often presented numerically, informed decision-making requires numeracy skills such as probabilistic reasoning – understanding randomness and probability. The present study examined whether different dimensions of science capital (engagement in science-related activities, self-efficacy, early encouragement to science, and science attitudes) are associated with probabilistic reasoning measured as performance in a randomness task and tasks measuring representativeness and equiprobability heuristics. The results showed that engagement in science-related activities was related to reduced use of the representativeness heuristic and higher accuracy on randomness when controlling for age, gender, and education level. Interestingly, the use of equiprobability heuristic increased with science-related activities but decreased with early encouragement to science. We suggest that in adults, an accessible and encouraging science environment may be positively related to probabilistic reasoning.