Risk-based sensitivity analysis of urban gas infrastructure in new district planning

Abstract

Abstract Urban gas infrastructure resilience is critical for public safety, yet rapidly expanding networks face increasing vulnerability. This study develops a system dynamics-based framework to identify key leverage points for enhancing gas infrastructure resilience in new urban districts. Using a three-tier indicator system of 32 risk factors across four dimensions, analytic hierarchy process weighting is integrated with system dynamics modeling in a case study of a new district in China. Sensitivity analysis reveals that system’s inherent resilience contributes most significantly, with the proportion of high-pressure pipelines exhibiting the highest sensitivity, followed by population-infrastructure spatial coupling and building seismic resistance. These findings demonstrate that planning-phase interventions targeting high-sensitivity indicators offer the most efficient pathway to enhancing urban gas infrastructure resilience, challenging conventional priorities that emphasize emergency response over foundational design considerations.