Rising surface salinity and declining sea ice: A new Southern Ocean state revealed by satellites

A Alessandro Silvano (Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton) A Aditya Narayanan (Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton) R Rafael Catany (ARGANS Ltd.) E Estrella Olmedo (Barcelona Expert Center on Remote Sensing, Institut de Ciències del Mar, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas) V Verónica González‐Gambau (Barcelona Expert Center on Remote Sensing, Institut de Ciències del Mar, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas) A Antonio Turiel (Barcelona Expert Center on Remote Sensing, Institut de Ciències del Mar, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas) R Roberto Sabia (European Space Agency, European Space Research Institute) M Matthew R. Mazloff (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California) T Theo Spira (Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg) F F. Alexander Haumann (Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research) A Alberto C. Naveira Garabato (Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton)

Abstract

For decades, the surface of the polar Southern Ocean (south of 50°S) has been freshening—an expected response to a warming climate. This freshening enhanced upper-ocean stratification, reducing the upward transport of subsurface heat and possibly contributing to sea ice expansion. It also limited the formation of open-ocean polynyas. Using satellite observations, we reveal a marked increase in surface salinity across the circumpolar Southern Ocean since 2015. This shift has weakened upper-ocean stratification, coinciding with a dramatic decline in Antarctic sea ice coverage. Additionally, rising salinity facilitated the reemergence of the Maud Rise polynya in the Weddell Sea, a phenomenon last observed in the mid-1970s. Crucially, we demonstrate that satellites can now monitor these changes in real time, providing essential evidence of the Southern Ocean’s potential transition toward persistently reduced sea ice coverage.

Article Details

Volume / Issue Vol. 122, Issue 27
Published July 08, 2025
ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher National Academy of Sciences

Authors (11)

A

Alessandro Silvano

Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton

A

Aditya Narayanan

Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton

R

Rafael Catany

ARGANS Ltd.

E

Estrella Olmedo

Barcelona Expert Center on Remote Sensing, Institut de Ciències del Mar, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas

V

Verónica González‐Gambau

Barcelona Expert Center on Remote Sensing, Institut de Ciències del Mar, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas

A

Antonio Turiel

Barcelona Expert Center on Remote Sensing, Institut de Ciències del Mar, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas

R

Roberto Sabia

European Space Agency, European Space Research Institute

M

Matthew R. Mazloff

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California

T

Theo Spira

Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg

F

F. Alexander Haumann

Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research

A

Alberto C. Naveira Garabato

Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton