Rethinking energy transition strategies for the European Union amid rising energy prices

Abstract

Geopolitical tensions and the disruption of major energy imports have sharply elevated energy prices across the European Union (EU), creating a persistent energy supply gap and posing long-term challenges for energy security. Here, we introduce a comprehensive framework integrating the advanced Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model with a system dynamic WILIAM (“Within limits”) Integrated Assessment Model to systematically evaluate strategies for closing this energy gap. We find that measures to close the energy gap in the short term exacerbate either economic or public health burdens, highlighting the need for more sustainable solutions in the long term. Our further analysis shows that long-term strategies focused on renewable energy transitions not only close the energy gap but also bring net benefits equivalent to ~3% of projected GDP for 2050. Moreover, we find that rising energy prices substantially influence the cost-effectiveness of accelerated energy transitions. Under current high energy price levels, the benefits from achieving energy targets set for 2050 by 5 to 20 y in advance could outweigh the additional costs. The consideration of dynamic trends in the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), particularly under rapid renewables expansion, is critical for avoiding overly optimistic estimations of green transition benefits. Our findings suggest that a timely transition to renewable energy benefits the EU in the face of the energy crisis, and policies proactively adjusting energy prices could facilitate a greener, more sustainable future.