Restoring institutional confidence in backsliding democracies: Evidence from Mexico

Abstract

Declining confidence in public institutions afflicts many democracies, a trend apparently exacerbated by backsliding leaders. These are leaders who gradually undermine the institutions that sustain democratic competition and accountability. Does the rhetoric of backsliders undermine the public’s confidence in the institutions under attack and can rebuttals of presidential diatribes restore this confidence? We explore the impact of backsliding leaders’ anti-institutional rhetoric in the context of Mexico. With text-as-data analyses, we demonstrate the harshness of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (2018–2024) anti-institutional diatribes against the agency that oversees national elections. With survey experiments, we demonstrate that these diatribes can indeed undermine public confidence. Yet our research also uncovers the potential for rebuttals to restore confidence. Counternarratives offered by organizations viewed as above the fray of Mexican politics restored public confidence—surprisingly, even among the president’s supporters. Our findings suggest strategies for breaking out of the cage of intense partisanship and countering democracy-degrading rhetoric. Though presidential haranguing of democratic institutions can have a powerful effect, there remains room for public confidence to be restored by more positive accounts.