Real-world outcomes and circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) dynamics in patients (pts) with microsatellite instability–high (MSI-H) metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC) treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI).

Abstract

3516 Background: ICIs produce durable benefit in MSI-H CRC, yet optimal treatment duration and monitoring strategies remain unclear. ctDNA enables minimally invasive assessment of molecular response during and after ICI. We evaluated real-world treatment patterns, outcomes, and longitudinal ctDNA dynamics in pts with MSI-H CRC treated with ICI. Methods: Pts with MSI-H mCRC treated with first-line ICI were identified from Natera’s Real-World Database with linked longitudinal ctDNA results (Signatera, Natera, Inc.) and commercial claims data (Forian’s Hybrid data ecosystem, CHRONOS). Overall survival (OS) was estimated using available mortality data (Veritas Data Research, Fact of Death Mortality Data Index). ctDNA status was assessed pre-ICI when available and longitudinally following ICI initiation. Outcomes included OS and time to next trmt (TTNT); ctDNA dynamics following ICI discontinuation were descriptively evaluated. Results: Among 559 pts treated with first line ICI (pembrolizumab [70.1%], ipilimumab+nivolumab [15.7%], and nivolumab [11.8%]), the median duration of ICI was 266 days. Baseline (pre-ICI) ctDNA results were available for 180 pts, including 38% who were treated with chemotherapy, and most pts (71.7%, 129/180) were ctDNA-positive (ctDNA(+)) prior to ICI initiation. Of these, 89.9% (116/129) had ctDNA-timepoints after the start of ICI, and 81.0% (94/116) achieved anytime ctDNA clearance (from ctDNA(+) to negative), while 19.0% (22/116) remained ctDNA(+). ctDNA(+) at anytime after the start of ICI (HR: 8.0, p < 0.0001) or on first result after the start of ICI (HR: 3.4, p < 0.0001) was associated with inferior OS compared ctDNA-negativity (ctDNA(-)) at these time points. Among pts whose first post-ICI test was ctDNA(+), 32% switched treatments, with a median TTNT of 302 days, compared to only 6.6% of pts (median TTNT 683 days) whose first post-ICI test was ctDNA(-). First post-ICI ctDNA status was associated with longer ICI duration (median 192 days for ctDNA(+) vs 303 days for ctDNA(-)), and ctDNA(+) was predictive of inferior OS (HR: 4.9; p < 0.001). ctDNA after the end of ICI was available for 392 patients; it was persistently negative in 77.2% (303/392), persistently positive in 12.8% (50/392), cleared after the end of ICI (positive to persistently negative) in 4.1%, and the remaining 5.9% had variable patterns (e.g. positive to negative to positive). Conclusions: In this large real-world cohort of MSI-H mCRC treated with ICI, longitudinal ctDNA dynamics strongly correlated with treatment durability, time to subsequent therapy, and OS. These findings support further evaluation of ctDNA to inform treatment duration and surveillance strategies in MSI-H mCRC.