Range-wide assessment of habitat suitability for jaguars using multiscale species distribution modelling
Abstract
Abstract Jaguars ( Panthera onca ) are highly sensitive to persecution, habitat loss, and fragmentation, making the identification of suitable habitat critical for conservation planning. Using GPS telemetry data from 172 individuals across eight countries – the largest jaguar dataset to date – we developed multiscale Resource Selection Functions (RSFs) incorporating 15 environmental covariates to model habitat suitability across the species’ historic range. Jaguars selected productive habitats near water and strongly avoided human-modified landscapes, including areas with high human population density and livestock presence. The resulting habitat suitability surface showed strong predictive performance (AUC = 0.88; Boyce Index = 0.91) and correlated with known density estimates and distribution models. Jaguar Conservation Units (JCUs) and Protected Areas (PAs) contained 68.7% and 53.9% of predicted suitable habitat, respectively, while occupying only a third of the range. Non-designated lands, though comprising just 4% of the range, held nearly 10% of total suitability. The Amazon and Mayan Forests were identified as core strongholds, while ecoregion-based modelling revealed additional areas of high suitability in the Pantanal, Gran Chaco, Cerrado, and coastal Mexico. While Brazil encompassed the largest extent of highly suitable habitat, countries such as Paraguay, Argentina, and the United States gained conservation relevance under the ecoregion-stratified scenario.
Article Details
Authors (38)
Guilherme Costa Alvarenga
Caroline C. Sartor
Samuel A. Cushman
Alexandra Zimmermann
Ana Carolina Srbek-Araujo
Ana Cristina Mendes-Oliveira
Bart Harmsen
Carlos De Angelo
Carolina Franco Esteves
Claudia B. de Campos
Daiana Jeronimo Polli
Diego F. Passos Viana
Diogo Maia Gräbin
Emiliano Donadio
Emiliano E. Ramalho
Esteban Payán
Fernando C. C. Azevedo
Francisco Palomares
Departamento de Biología de la Conservación, Estación Biológica de Doñana, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
George V. N. Powell
Gerardo Ceballos
Grasiela Porfirio
Heliot Zarza
Ivonne Cassaigne
Juliano A. Bogoni
Leonardo Sena
Louise Maranhão
Marcos Roberto Monteiro de Brito
Mathias W. Tobler
Øystein Wiig
Rebecca J. Foster
Ricardo Sampaio
Rodrigo Nuñez
Ronaldo G. Morato
National Research Center for Carnivores Conservation, Chico Mendes Institute for the Conservation of Biodiversity
Valeria Boron
Wener Hugo Arruda Moreno
Yadvinder Malhi
David W. Macdonald
Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, Department of Biology, University of Oxford
Zaneta Kaszta