Radiomics-based identification of high-risk disease in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma

Abstract

Abstract Introduction: Suboptimal response to therapy, early disease relapse, and limited long-term survival remain critical challenges in a substantial number of patients with multiple myeloma (MM). While cross-sectional imaging studies are commonly obtained in clinical practice, only limited information is currently incorporated into risk stratification efforts and clinical decision making. Here, we investigate the use of novel image-based biomarkers to identify patients at high risk for adverse outcomes. Methods: We obtained the pretreatment 18F-FDG PET/CT scans of patients with newly diagnosed MM with available clinical and laboratory data seen at Mayo Clinic between 2006 and 2022. In this analysis, we included 637 patients with detectable metabolic tumor volume on their pretreatment scan. The native DICOM images were pre-processed and subjected to automated image segmentation using nnU-Net (nnU-Net v1.0, inference using a pre-trained hematologic malignancies model). Limitations of this automated segmentation approach include heterogeneity introduced by varying image quality, technical variability in PET reconstruction, and potential inclusion of non-neoplastic FDG-avid lesions in segmented regions. PyRadiomics was used to extract quantitative radiomics features for clinical prediction modeling. We evaluated the predictive power of tumor size-, shape-, and texture-related radiomics features for identifying high-risk disease (advanced ISS stage at diagnosis, the presence of high-risk FISH abnormalities, failure to achieve a stringent complete response [sCR] to first-line therapy by IWMG criteria, and early mortality). All radiomics features were quantile-normalized for downstream modeling. Forward and backward feature selection as well as testing for multicollinearity were used to remove redundant features. Results: Median age at diagnosis of the 637 myeloma patients was 64 years (range 22–90), and 387 patients (61%) were male. After a median follow-up of 4.4 years (95% CI 0.2–11.7), median overall survival (OS) was 7.3 years (95% CI 6.3–8.3). Increased total tumor volume (upper tertile vs lower tertiles), measured by the total tumor surface area, was associated with advanced ISS stage (III vs I+II; OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.24–2.42, p=0.001, n=637). Increased tumor density (dichotomized at the median), measured by the median gray level intensity (OR 1.93, 95% CI 1.94–3.12, p=0.007, n=303), and decreased tumor heterogeneity (lower tertile vs upper tertiles), measured by the variability of gray-level intensities (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.49–3.12, p=0.012, n=303), were associated with the presence of high-risk cytogenetics. Both increased total tumor volume (4.9% increase per tertile, 95% CI 2.2–7.6, p<0.001, n=600) and tumor density (8.9% increase per tertile, 95% CI 4.5–13.3, p<0.001, n=600) were independently associated with more extensive bone marrow involvement at diagnosis. Increased tumor heterogeneity (upper tertiles vs lower tertile), as measured by rapid changes of gray level intensities, was associated with failure to achieve a stringent complete response to first-line therapy (OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.30–0.82, p=0.006, n=351). Increased tumor volume was associated with shorter OS (HR 1.35 per tertile, 95% CI 1.11–1.63, p=0.002, n=301), independent of age, sex, ISS stage, and the presence of high-risk cytogenetics. A simple additive score consisting of tertiles of total tumor volume, ISS stage, and plasma cell labeling index ≥2% identified patients at risk of mortality within 3 years of diagnosis (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.40–2.85, p<0.001, n=126), with moderate discrimination (AUC=0.71). Sensitivity analysis demonstrated total tumor volume and texture as most predictive of overall survival in a random forest survival model (C-index 0.712, 95% CI 0.649–0.775) and tumor texture as most predictive of response to therapy in a random forest classification model (C-index 0.693, 95% CI 0.607–0.779). Conclusions: Automated image segmentation and radiomics feature extraction from 18F-FDG PET/CT scans produces biomarkers that capture disease stage, burden, and risk in newly diagnosed MM. Total tumor volume and heterogeneity are strongly associated with important disease characteristics and can be used to identify patients at high risk for therapeutic resistance, early mortality, and inferior long-term outcomes.