Quantifying UK coastal flood exposure under future sea-level rise to 2300

Abstract

Abstract The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report highlighted the potential for more than 15 m of global sea-level rise by 2300. In this study, we explore the implications for UK coastal flood exposure by combining national-scale flood modelling with physically-based storylines of UK sea-level rise. By 2100 all storylines show broadly similar results with at least an additional 0.5 million people exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood extent, which represents a 25% increase compared to present day. Under the most pessimistic storyline by 2300 involving significant ice-sheet instability, an additional 13 million people could be exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood event. This would imply the potential need for large-scale movement of populations and settlements away from the coast in the coming centuries. Given current global emissions pledges, exposure increases by 1.7 million people by 2300, however up to 1 million could be avoided if Paris Agreement targets for greenhouse gas emissions are met.