Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa
Abstract
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the world’s largest projected increase in demand for food. Increased dependence on imports makes SSA vulnerable to geopolitical and economic risks, while further expansion of agricultural land is environmentally harmful. Cereals, in particular, maize, millet, rice, sorghum, and wheat, take nearly 50% of the cropland and 43% of the calories and proteins consumed in the region. Demand is projected to double until 2050. Here, we assess recent developments in cereal self-sufficiency and provide outlooks until 2050 under different intensification, area expansion, and climate change scenarios. We use detailed data for ten countries. Cereal self-sufficiency increased between 2010 and 2020 from 84 to 92% despite the 29% population increase. The production increase was achieved by increased yields per hectare (44%), area expansion (34%), and a shift from millet to the higher yielding maize (22%). Outlooks for 2050 are less pessimistic than earlier assessments because of the larger 2020 baseline area, higher shares of maize and somewhat less steep projected population increase. Yet, to halt further area expansion, a drastic trend change in annual yield increase from the present 20 to 58 kg ha −1 y −1 is needed to achieve cereal self-sufficiency. While such yield increases have been achieved elsewhere and are feasible given the yield potentials in SSA, they require structural changes and substantial agronomic, socioeconomic, and political investments. We estimate that amounts of added nitrogen need to at least triple to achieve such yield improvements, but it is essential that this comes with improved context-specific agronomy.
Article Details
Journal Info
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Sciences
Authors (17)
Martin K. van Ittersum
Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University & Research
Seyyedmajid Alimagham
Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University & Research
João Vasco Silva
Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University & Research
Samuel Adjei-Nsiah
College of Basic and Applied Sciences, Forest and Horticultural Crops Research Centre, University of Ghana
Frederick P. Baijukya
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA)
Abdullahi Bala
Department of Soil Science, Federal University of Technology Minna
Regis Chikowo
Crop Science Department, University of Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe/International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Sustainable Agrifood Systems Program (SAS)
Patricio Grassini
Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska–Lincoln
Hugo L.E. de Groot
Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University & Research
Aphrodis Nshizirungu
Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University & Research
Abdelkader Mahamane Soulé
Département des Cultures Pluviales, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique du Niger
Timothy B. Sulser
Godfrey Taulya
Department of Soil Science and Land Use Management, Makerere University
Fatima Amor Tenorio
Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska–Lincoln
Kindie Tesfaye
Climate Adaptation, Sustainable Agriculture and Resilience Unit, AGRA
Shen Yuan
National Key Laboratory of Crop Genetic Improvement, Hubei Hongshan Laboratory, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People’s Republic of China (MARA) Key Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University
Marloes P. van Loon
Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University & Research