Prognostic value of the ratio of globally sclerotic glomeruli in patients with idiopathic IgA nephropathy

S Sinan Kazan S Savaş Öztürk M Müge Uzerk Kibar S Seyda Gul Ozcan R Raife Dilhan Alcelik Karacan N Necmi Eren (Kocaeli University, Kocaeli, Turkey) M Mahmut Gok K Kultigin Turkmen H Hamad Dheir T Taner Basturk E Erhan Tatar O Omer Faruk Akcay M Meltem Gürsu H Hakki Arikan S Sena Ulu M Mehmet Deniz Ayli I Ilhan Kurultak D Dilek Guven Taymez B Belda Dursun R Ramazan Ozturk S Sim Kutlay S Sebnem Karakan M Murvet Yilmaz D Dilek Torun K Kenan Turgutalp (School of Medicine, Mersin University, Mersin, Turkey) A Alper Azak Z Zeki Aydin D Deren Oygar N Nedim Selcuk Yilmaz B Bulent Kaya Z Zülfükar Yilmaz O Ozcan Uzun M Murat Hayri Sipahioglu M Melike Betul Ogutmen S Serap Yadigar A Aysegul Oruc M Mahmud Islam M Müge Doksan M Meryem Keles M Mehmet Riza Altiparmak A Abdulkadir Celik E Erkan Dervişoğlu R Rabia Hacer E Ezgi Coskun Yenigun O Onur Tunca

Abstract

Abstract IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common primary glomerulonephritis worldwide. We assessed whether the Ratio of Globally Sclerotic Glomeruli (RoGSG) on diagnostic biopsy predicts subsequent kidney outcomes in a nationwide, multi‑center registry. Among 326 adults with idiopathic IgAN (mean age 39.1 ± 12.8 years; 60.1% male), 43 patients (13.2%) met a 5 year composite outcome defined as any of: doubling of serum creatinine or ≥ 50% decline in eGFR from baseline, eGFR < 15 mL/min/1.73 m 2 , or initiation of kidney replacement therapy. Receiver operating characteristic analysis identified a RoGSG cutoff of 28.86% for predicting the composite outcome (AUC 0.917, 95% CI 0.885–0.949; sensitivity 93.0%; specificity 84.5%). Using this threshold, 47.6% of patients with RoGSG ≥ 28.86% versus 1.2% with RoGSG < 28.86% reached the composite outcome. In multivariable models adjusted for clinical and pathologic covariates, high RoGSG, grade 2 tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis, and non‑response to initial immunosuppression were independent predictors of adverse outcomes. The prognostic association of RoGSG persisted in key subgroups, including those with nephrotic syndrome and those with initial treatment response. These findings support RoGSG as a readily available histopathologic marker that may improve risk stratification in IgAN; however, prospective studies and external validation in independent cohorts are required before any clinical adoption.

Article Details

Volume / Issue Vol. 16, Issue 1
Published January 07, 2026
ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher Nature Portfolio

Journal Info

Scientific Reports

Nature Portfolio

ISSN: 2045-2322 Open Access Life Sciences

Authors (45)

S

Sinan Kazan

S

Savaş Öztürk

M

Müge Uzerk Kibar

S

Seyda Gul Ozcan

R

Raife Dilhan Alcelik Karacan

N

Necmi Eren

Kocaeli University, Kocaeli, Turkey

M

Mahmut Gok

K

Kultigin Turkmen

H

Hamad Dheir

T

Taner Basturk

E

Erhan Tatar

O

Omer Faruk Akcay

M

Meltem Gürsu

H

Hakki Arikan

S

Sena Ulu

M

Mehmet Deniz Ayli

I

Ilhan Kurultak

D

Dilek Guven Taymez

B

Belda Dursun

R

Ramazan Ozturk

S

Sim Kutlay

S

Sebnem Karakan

M

Murvet Yilmaz

D

Dilek Torun

K

Kenan Turgutalp

School of Medicine, Mersin University, Mersin, Turkey

A

Alper Azak

Z

Zeki Aydin

D

Deren Oygar

N

Nedim Selcuk Yilmaz

B

Bulent Kaya

Z

Zülfükar Yilmaz

O

Ozcan Uzun

M

Murat Hayri Sipahioglu

M

Melike Betul Ogutmen

S

Serap Yadigar

A

Aysegul Oruc

M

Mahmud Islam

M

Müge Doksan

M

Meryem Keles

M

Mehmet Riza Altiparmak

A

Abdulkadir Celik

E

Erkan Dervişoğlu

R

Rabia Hacer

E

Ezgi Coskun Yenigun

O

Onur Tunca