Price convergence in grain markets with seasonal differences

Abstract

Using weekly price data from 97 Nigerian markets, we examine how seasonal harvest timing shapes price dynamics for staple grains using a dyadic panel design. Our analysis reveals that markets operating in the same harvest phase experience faster price convergence, while asynchronous seasonal conditions slow adjustments—particularly for local rice and cowpea. In contrast, imported long-grain rice shows stable price behavior throughout the year. These results highlight the critical influence of seasonal cycles on market integration and offer fresh insights for food security strategies.