Prediction of future aging-related slow gait and its determinants with deep learning and logistic regression

Abstract

Background Identification of accelerated aging and its biomarkers can lead to more timely therapeutic interventions and decision-making. Therefore, we sought to predict aging-related slow gait, a known predictor of accelerated aging, and its determinants. Methods We applied a deep learning neural network (NN) and compared it to conventional logistic regression (LR) analysis. We incorporated 1,363 participants from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging to predict current and future slow gait at 6-year and 10-year follow-up using two clinically-relevant cut-points. Results Our NN achieved a maximum sensitivity (specificity) of 81.2% (87.9%), for a 10-year prediction with 0.8 m/s cut-point. We demonstrated the necessity of class balancing and found the NN to perform comparably to or in some cases, better than, LR which achieved a maximum sensitivity and specificity of 84.5% and 86.3%, respectively. Sobol index analysis identified the strongest determinants to be age, BMI, sleep, and grip strength. Conclusions The novel use of a NN for this purpose, and successful benchmarking against conventional techniques, justifies further exploration and expansion of this model.