Predicting short-term mortality in severe cirrhosis: An interpretable machine learning model integrating routine clinical indicators

Abstract

Background The critical need for precise risk stratification in severe liver cirrhosis is underscored by its substantial 30-day mortality rates, demanding reliable tools to guide clinical interventions. Objective To establish a machine learning-driven prognostic model for short-term mortality prediction in decompensated cirrhosis through comprehensive analysis of critical care data. Methods This retrospective cohort study analyzed 1,044 carefully curated cases from the MIMIC-IV database, randomly divided into training (n = 740) and validation (n = 304) sets. We developed a machine learning model incorporating multidimensional clinical parameters, with rigorous evaluation and internal validation. Short-term survival was analyzed via bootstrap-validated Cox proportional hazards regression. Prognostic heterogeneity across international normalized ratio (INR)-based strata was examined. Results The final prediction model incorporated eight significant predictors: age (OR 1.051, 95% CI 1.033–1.070), INR (OR 1.423, 95%CI 1.231–1.644), creatinine (OR 1.171, 95%CI 1.071–1.208), platelets (OR 0.995, 95%CI 0.993–0.997), white blood cell (OR 1.116, 95%CI 1.078–1.155), total bilirubin (OR 1.027, 95%CI 1.002–1.052), peptic ulcer (OR 0.336, 95%CI 0.134–0.845), and Aspartate Aminotransferase/Alanine Aminotransferase (AST/ALT) (OR 1.508, 95%CI 1.294–1.757). The model demonstrated excellent discrimination with an AUC of 0.846 in the training cohort. Cox regression analysis confirmed these findings and identified additional associations with aspartate aminotransferase and red blood cell levels. Furthermore, the indicators within the model provide accurate predictions for the clinical outcomes of patients suffering from severe cirrhosis. Subgroup analysis revealed significant mortality variations across different INR ranges ( P  < 0.001). Conclusions Our prediction model identifies high-risk cirrhotic patients and highlights critical prognostic factors, offering clinicians a valuable tool for risk stratification and timely intervention. The strong correlation between laboratory markers, complications, and outcomes underscores the importance of close monitoring in this population. However, our model is an initial step, effective within the ICU but requiring external, multi-center studies to broaden its clinical applicability, which is a clear priority for our future work.