Phosphorus enrichment does not enlarge the predicted CO <sub>2</sub> fertilization effect on forest carbon sequestration

B Bin Wang H He Lyu (State Key Laboratory for Vegetation Structure, Function and Construction, College of Life Sciences, Zhejiang University) X Xueqian Zhang (State Key Laboratory for Vegetation Structure, Function and Construction, College of Life Sciences, Zhejiang University) M Mingkai Jiang (State Key Laboratory for Vegetation Structure, Function and Construction, College of Life Sciences, Zhejiang University) B Belinda E. Medlyn (Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University) D David Wårlind (Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Faculty of Science, Lund University) J Jürgen Knauer K Katrin Fleischer (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry) D Daniel S. Goll (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay) S Stefan Olin (Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Faculty of Science, Lund University) X Xiaojuan Yang (Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory) L Lin Yu S Sönke Zaehle H Haicheng Zhang (Carbon-Water Research Station in Karst Regions of Northern Guangdong, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University) K Kristian Schufft (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry) K Kristine Y. Crous (Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University) Y Yolima Carrillo (Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University) C Catriona A. Macdonald (Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University) I Ian C. Anderson (Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University) M Matthias M. Boer (Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University) M Mark Farrell (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Agriculture and Food, Kaurna Country) A Andrew Gherlenda (Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University) L Laura Castañeda-Gómez (SouthPole Environmental Services) S Shun Hasegawa (Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University) K Klaus Jarosch (Agroecology and Environment) P Paul Milham (Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University) R Raúl Ochoa-Hueso (Department of Biology, Instituto de Investigación Vitivinícola y Agroalimentaria, University of Cádiz, Campus de Excelencia Internacional Agroalimentario) V Varsha Pathare (Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University) J Johanna Pihlblad (Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University) J Juan Piñeiro (Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University) S Sally A. Power (Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University) P Peter B. Reich M Markus Riegler (Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University) D David S. Ellsworth (Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University) B Benjamin Smith (Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University)

Abstract

The capacity of nutrient-limited forests to enhance carbon (C) sequestration under elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) remains a critical uncertainty in C cycle modeling. While existing evidence suggests that low phosphorus (P) bioavailability may constrain CO 2 fertilization effects on plant growth, the extent to which this limitation modulates ecosystem responses to eCO 2 in forests adapted to P-deficient soils remains poorly understood. Here, using eight P-enabled models, we simulated the magnitudes and mechanisms through which P bioavailability interacts with eCO 2 , emulating an ecosystem-scale P enrichment experiment at a P-limited Eucalyptus forest undergoing long-term Free-Air CO 2 Enrichment. While models predicted pronounced P effects on tree growth, P enrichment unexpectedly did not increase the CO 2 effects on tree growth and ecosystem C sequestration. Models prioritized either CO 2 -driven or P-driven growth, but rarely both. This tradeoff emerged due to model-specific assumptions on 1) partitioning of the extra P in soil labile versus nonlabile pools; 2) plant photosynthetic acclimation to P deficiency; 3) C and nutrient use strategies regulating plant size and allocation; and 4) microbial-driven soil decomposition processes. By generating divergent yet biologically plausible outcomes, these predictions establish critical testable hypotheses for empirical research and highlight multiple P-related pathways that may influence the future land C sink.

Article Details

Volume / Issue Vol. 123, Issue 12
Published March 24, 2026
ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher National Academy of Sciences

Authors (35)

B

Bin Wang

H

He Lyu

State Key Laboratory for Vegetation Structure, Function and Construction, College of Life Sciences, Zhejiang University

X

Xueqian Zhang

State Key Laboratory for Vegetation Structure, Function and Construction, College of Life Sciences, Zhejiang University

M

Mingkai Jiang

State Key Laboratory for Vegetation Structure, Function and Construction, College of Life Sciences, Zhejiang University

B

Belinda E. Medlyn

Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University

D

David Wårlind

Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Faculty of Science, Lund University

J

Jürgen Knauer

K

Katrin Fleischer

Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry

D

Daniel S. Goll

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay

S

Stefan Olin

Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Faculty of Science, Lund University

X

Xiaojuan Yang

Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

L

Lin Yu

S

Sönke Zaehle

H

Haicheng Zhang

Carbon-Water Research Station in Karst Regions of Northern Guangdong, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University

K

Kristian Schufft

Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry

K

Kristine Y. Crous

Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University

Y

Yolima Carrillo

Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University

C

Catriona A. Macdonald

Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University

I

Ian C. Anderson

Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University

M

Matthias M. Boer

Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University

M

Mark Farrell

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Agriculture and Food, Kaurna Country

A

Andrew Gherlenda

Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University

L

Laura Castañeda-Gómez

SouthPole Environmental Services

S

Shun Hasegawa

Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University

K

Klaus Jarosch

Agroecology and Environment

P

Paul Milham

Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University

R

Raúl Ochoa-Hueso

Department of Biology, Instituto de Investigación Vitivinícola y Agroalimentaria, University of Cádiz, Campus de Excelencia Internacional Agroalimentario

V

Varsha Pathare

Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University

J

Johanna Pihlblad

Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University

J

Juan Piñeiro

Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University

S

Sally A. Power

Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University

P

Peter B. Reich

M

Markus Riegler

Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University

D

David S. Ellsworth

Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University

B

Benjamin Smith

Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University