Permafrost landsystems define regional variability in climate change effects on northern environments

Abstract

Abstract Anticipating the environmental and societal consequences of climate-driven permafrost thaw requires knowledge of terrain and subsurface conditions, which prove challenging to obtain at spatial scales necessary for rigorous prediction and decision-making. Analysis of a systematic inventory of permafrost landforms across northwestern Canada demonstrates that landform assemblages co-develop with ecosystems, distinguishing fundamental permafrost properties across a continental-scale ecoclimatic gradient (10 6  km 2 ) and among finer-scale ecological regions (10 3 to 10 4  km 2 ). This approach quantifies variation in geological and climatic legacies and delineates the diverse consequences of thaw. Here we show that permafrost landsystems, defined by characteristic landform assemblages, express spatial variation in soil, ground ice, geochemical, and carbon characteristics, enabling these intrinsic conditions to be inferred at regional scales through integrated mapping and analyses. Permafrost landsystems also provide a conceptual framework to inform predictions of thaw-driven change, and to formulate, share, and apply permafrost knowledge across scales, disciplines, and ways of knowing.